Significant Percentage Of Verizon Android Users To Switch to iPhone

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Some weeks ago I wrote a post regarding the iPhone coming to Verizon. My main point was to assert that I thought it would dramatically hurt Android sales. Today, a survey taken by a high-tech online research firm based in Los Angeles called uSamp, has given evidence that I may be correct. The results of this survey were published in an article on Fortune written by Philip Elmer-DeWitt.

From the article:

Survey: 44% of Verizon Android users likely to switch to iPhone on Day One

For Blackberry users it's 66%, and nearly a quarter are willing to stand in like to get one

Drawing from a pool of 4.7 million panelists, uSamp asked a sample of 700 AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) smartphone owners how likely they were to switch to Verizon's version of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone next Thursday, Feb. 10, the first day it goes on sale.

The results are posted in full below the fold. The key findings:

  • Among Android owners, 44% are either very likely (19%) or somewhat likely (25%) to buy an iPhone on Feb. 10.
  • Among RIM owners, 66% are very likely (32%) or somewhat likely (34%) to switch on Day One. Nearly a quarter (24%) of the Android and RIM switchers say they'd be willing to stand in line to get one of the first Verizon iPhones.
  • Owners of AT&T (T) iPhones are less likely to switch (8% very likely, 18% somewhat) but the switchers are more likely (29%) than RIM or Android owners to stand in line that first day. Perhaps they have more practice queuing up for an iPhone.

Most Verizon Android Owners Are Main Stream Users

It is my firm belief that most Verizon Android owners are not open-source geeks/advocates who consciously went to (or stayed on) Verizon to buy an Android because they're anti-Apple. I would wager to say that most Android owners on Verizon are main-stream users who wanted iPhones but because they were unwilling to switch to AT&T. Instead, they walked into a Verizon store and asked a salesperson to give them a phone that was "like an iPhone". The salesperson handed them an Android and sold them on the idea that it was "just as good" so that's what they bought. A certain percentage of these users are not happy. They want to be able to use the same apps that all of their friends who have iPhones can use. They are not happy that the phone doesn't "work as good" as iPhones do (UI, ease of use, stability, battery life - things that Apple geeks can point out, but non-tech savvy users might have a hard time quantifying).

This has all changed. Some of these users will go to Verizon and immediately switch. Some of these users will switch to an iPhone when their contract is up and they can get the subsidized upgrade price. The main change though is that these users are now able to walk into a Verizon store and get the iPhone. Not a phone that is "like the iPhone" or "just as good" as the iPhone...but an actual iPhone. And that is why Android is in trouble.

Much Ado About Nothing

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This morning, the New York Times published an article entitled "Apple Moves to Tighten Control of App Store".

The company has told some applications developers, including Sony, that they can no longer sell content, like e-books, within their apps, or let customers have access to purchases they have made outside the App Store.

Apple rejected Sony’s iPhone application, which would have let people buy and read e-books bought from the Sony Reader Store.

Apple told Sony that from now on, all in-app purchases would have to go through Apple, said Steve Haber, president of Sony’s digital reading division.

Am I missing something? From reading the article, my understanding is that Sony tried to submit an app to the store that would allow in-app purchases. The Kindle or Nook apps, for instance, currently do not allow this either. When users click the various "store" links within these apps, it redirects the user to Safari. In other words, no ebook apps currently allow in-app purchases. It is my understanding that this has always been Apple's policy. Nothing has changed. Why is the New York Times feigning ignorance on this? Or are they really just that, ignorant.

The writers of the article, Claire Cain Miller and Miguel Helft go on to say:

The move could affect companies like Amazon.com and others that sell e-book readers that compete with Apple’s iPad tablet and offer free mobile apps so customers can read their e-book purchases on other devices. An iPad owner, for instance, has not needed to own a Kindle to read Kindle books bought from Amazon.

That may now change.

No, it will not.

Why have so many bloggers followed along with this incorrect narrative this morning? This is just Apple enforcing th same policy they always have had and Sony probably whining to the Times because they want special treatment.