Some weeks ago I wrote a post regarding the iPhone coming to Verizon. My main point was to assert that I thought it would dramatically hurt Android sales. Today, a survey taken by a high-tech online research firm based in Los Angeles called uSamp, has given evidence that I may be correct. The results of this survey were published in an article on Fortune written by Philip Elmer-DeWitt.

From the article:

Survey: 44% of Verizon Android users likely to switch to iPhone on Day One

For Blackberry users it's 66%, and nearly a quarter are willing to stand in like to get one

Drawing from a pool of 4.7 million panelists, uSamp asked a sample of 700 AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) smartphone owners how likely they were to switch to Verizon's version of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone next Thursday, Feb. 10, the first day it goes on sale.

The results are posted in full below the fold. The key findings:

Among Android owners, 44% are either very likely (19%) or somewhat likely (25%) to buy an iPhone on Feb. 10.

Among RIM owners, 66% are very likely (32%) or somewhat likely (34%) to switch on Day One. Nearly a quarter (24%) of the Android and RIM switchers say they'd be willing to stand in line to get one of the first Verizon iPhones.

Owners of AT&T (T) iPhones are less likely to switch (8% very likely, 18% somewhat) but the switchers are more likely (29%) than RIM or Android owners to stand in line that first day. Perhaps they have more practice queuing up for an iPhone.

Most Verizon Android Owners Are Main Stream Users

It is my firm belief that most Verizon Android owners are not open-source geeks/advocates who consciously went to (or stayed on) Verizon to buy an Android because they're anti-Apple. I would wager to say that most Android owners on Verizon are main-stream users who wanted iPhones but because they were unwilling to switch to AT&T. Instead, they walked into a Verizon store and asked a salesperson to give them a phone that was "like an iPhone". The salesperson handed them an Android and sold them on the idea that it was "just as good" so that's what they bought. A certain percentage of these users are not happy. They want to be able to use the same apps that all of their friends who have iPhones can use. They are not happy that the phone doesn't "work as good" as iPhones do (UI, ease of use, stability, battery life - things that Apple geeks can point out, but non-tech savvy users might have a hard time quantifying).

This has all changed. Some of these users will go to Verizon and immediately switch. Some of these users will switch to an iPhone when their contract is up and they can get the subsidized upgrade price. The main change though is that these users are now able to walk into a Verizon store and get the iPhone. Not a phone that is "like the iPhone" or "just as good" as the iPhone...but an actual iPhone. And that is why Android is in trouble.