Top 10 Macworld rumors for 2009

in , , , ,

Apple’s (AAPL) last Macworld Conference and Expo opens Monday at San Francisco’s Moscone Center, but the real action starts Tuesday at 9 a.m. PT (12 noon ET) with senior vice president Phil Schiller’s opening remarks — the first Macworld keynote not delivered by Steve Jobs since 1997.

Nobody’s expecting breakthrough products that rise to the level of the iMac (Macworld 1998), the iBook (1999), iTunes (2001) or the iPhone (2007), but this Expo is not without its drama, speculation and hype.

Our top 10 favorite Macworld rumors:

10. Snow Leopard release date. We know a lot about Mac OS X 10.6, thanks to Jobs’ June 2008 announcement that it was coming, Apple’s official description of the product and a steady stream of leaks from the developer community. What we don’t know is when it will ship.

9. Unibody 17-inch MacBook Pro. By several accounts, this machine was supposed to be released in October, along with the new unibody 13-inch MacBook and 15-inch MacBook Pro. But display issues and problems with the optical drive reportedly pushed its release back “several months” — which brings us to next week’s Expo. UPDATE: Seth Weintraub at 9to5Mac adds this twist: the new 17-inch Pro will sport a superslim longer-lasting nonremovable battery pack.

8. Revamped iWork. The big news on New Year’s Eve was the “truckload” of information dumped on various rumor sites about iWork — Apple’s homegrown answer to Microsoft (MSFT) Office.  The thrust of it was that what’s now a suite of desktop applications — Pages, Numbers and Keynote — is about to be transformed into a collection of Web-based apps like the .Mac Web Gallery, suitable for cloud computing.

7. 32 GB iPhone. Whispers that Apple was set to double the memory of the top-end iPhone have been floating around since September, but AT&T’s (T) post-Christmas $99 iPhone sale and word that Apple had sewed up the lion’s share Samsung’s flash memory production all point to a January release.

6. 64 GB iPod touch. Rumors of this memory upgrade go back even further. It was supposed to happen in August, then in September, and then before Christmas. With memory prices falling, time is more than ripe.

5. New Mac mini. Rumors of the most affordable Mac’s imminent demise have given way to a flood of new specs, among them  2.0 or 2.3 GHz Core 2 Duo processors, NVIDIA graphics platform, dual display outputs and dual drives that can be configured every which way.

4. New iMac. Some inspired sleuthing in the extension files that shipped with the new MacBooks found references to NVIDIA chipsets for both a Mac mini and a new iMac — along with hints that the reconfigured all-in-one desktop was supposed to ship in November but got pushed into 2009 by unexpected delays. DigiTimes now reports that Apple has ordered shipments of 800,000 per month.

3. New iPod shuffle. FBR Capital Markets’ Craig Berger, whose track record AppleInsider describes as “questionable,” expects Apple to release a new and smaller version of the iPod shuffle sometime in the first calendar quarter — which started on Thursday. AppleInsider adds that it has picked up chatter of a new shuffle that would be flat as a credit card but thick enough at one end to fit a headphone jack.

2. New Apple TV/Time Capsule. This one also comes from an analyst. Shaw Wu, a veteran Apple watcher newly ensconsed at Kaufman Bros., wrote last week about the possibility that Apple will introduce a new consumer device — “an enhanced version of Apple TV and/or Time Capsule” — that would give users access to their media content, SlingBox style, from anywhere on the Internet.

1. Steve Jobs. Show or no-show, Apple’s CEO is both Macworld 2009’s No. 1 rumor and No. 1 source of rumors — whether it be that he’s stepping down, that his health is failing, that he doesn’t feel there’s enough news in Nos. 1-9 to justify a Steve Jobs keynote, or that he just doesn’t feel like playing in Macworld’s sandbox anymore. We favor the theory that he’s set the stage brilliantly for a surprise cameo appearance.


Below the line:

Is there truth to any of this? We’ll be flying to San Francisco Monday to find out. Tune in to this space early Tuesday for our Macworld 2009 live blog.

[Photo courtesy of setteB.IT.]

Below the fold: How Phil Schiller could hit a home run next Tuesday, as imagined on The Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board by one of the regulars, retired Air Force pilot Pat Smellie.

From AFB:


Mr Schiller will do great.  He is being coached by one of the best presenters in the business and whether SJ shows or not he will have been over every inch of the presentation.

Start with Itunes Over 6B songs sold., 400M Applications, 300M TV shows WOW.  Bring up the Music execs and announce release of Itunes Plus for all tracks same great price.

Back to Schiller Mac sales growth over 10M new MACs in 2008.  Demo new IMac, MAC Mini, Mac Pro in Feb with Intel I7 and Mac Book Pro 17’ Quad Core.

Switch to Snow Leopard speed comparison of the new hardware on Leopard vs Snow Leopard.  Wow!  Free upgrade to Snow Leopard with new Mac purchase.  Available in June

Software demo of new ILife/Iwork Suite on mobile me.  Free to all Mobile Me subscribers.

On to Iphone 20M sold to date.  Joined on stage by China Mobile CEO.  Announce new Iphone for China/Korea GSM/TD-SCDMA $99 price also available US non 3G via Walmart.  Demo couple new software features.

One More Thing
Finally lights dim and SJ appears on stage with a NetBook and Tablet.  He says he can’t decide which to build so he will let America decide.  Call in numbers or text Netbook/Tablet.  Voting will continue until end of Mac World

Lights come up curtain opens SJ on stage with Sir Paul singing Let It Be announcing the release of the Beatles catalog big grin

It great to dream big.  Reality is its a show as much as anything.  Apple will deliver many great things this year but probably a lot of them will not be announced at Mac World.  — pats

Andy Ihnatko demonstrates his Internet Pants™

in , , , ,

 

Recently Andy Ihnatko was visiting the Washington DC area and made a guest appearance at the Washington Area Apple Pi user group. During his talk, he demonstrated the utility of his internet pants. I apologize for the this rough cut of this clip along with the fact that the camera shakes. I have VERY LITTLE video experience and this video was actually the first one I've ever taken with this new camera (Canon Vixia HF100) and this was my first time ever using Final Cut Express. I also did not have the best seat for videoing this demonstration, as you can see from the two people sitting in front of me. The best shots of the video start at 1:30 into it.

RIAA Abandoning Mass Lawsuits In Favor Of Backroom 3 Strikes Policy

in , , , , ,

It really was just three days ago that we suggested that if the record labels actually wanted anyone to take them seriously concerning their desire to come up with more constructive solutions to the business model challenges they face, they should at least stop suing folks as a gesture of trying something new. The usual recording industry defenders in the comments claimed this was a ridiculous suggestion, but it appears that the RIAA is at least taking a small step in that direction. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the recording industry (the WSJ mis-labels it 'the music industry') is abandoning its strategy of mass lawsuits.

First off, this is a step in the right direction -- and we think it's great that the record labels have agreed to do this, even if it's many, many years too late. And, it's hardly a huge concession. The lawsuits have been an unmitigated disaster. They have done nothing to slow file sharing (in fact, the publicity generated from the lawsuits has often been credited with alerting many people to the possibility). The strategy has also splintered the file sharing space into many, many different players, many of them way underground, unlike in the early days when there were a manageable number of players who could be worked with proactively. It's also done tremendous damage to the brands of the major record labels (Universal, Warner, EMI and Sony) and the RIAA itself -- leading many to swear off buying any of their products. Finally -- and most importantly -- the strategy did absolutely nothing to help musicians adapt to a changing market that was opening up tremendous new opportunities both to spread their music and to profit. So, kudos to the folks at the RIAA for finally realizing how backwards this strategy has been.

The fine print

But, of course, this is the RIAA, so you can rest assured that the details aren't anything to be happy about. In exchange for not filing mass lawsuits, the RIAA has worked out backroom deals with numerous ISPs (brokered by Andrew Cuomo -- who has a history of using baseless threats to get ISPs to censor content they have no legal responsibility to censor). The exact details are a bit sketchy, but it sounds like a variation on the ridiculous three strikes policy that has been (mostly) rejected in Europe as a violation of basic civil rights. Basically, these ISPs will agree to be the RIAA enforcers. Based solely on the RIAA's flimsy evidence, the ISPs will either pass on, or directly email subscribers with, warning letters. Depending on the specifics of the agreement, the users will get one or two more warning letters before the ISP will start limiting their internet access or potentially cutting them off entirely. If you think this sounds suspiciously like what Europe just rejected, you're right.

And, of course, the RIAA still says it may sue those who don't stop file sharing after all of this. They're just backing away from the mass lawsuit filings that they've been doing.

Why this is still a bad deal

Okay, so over the past few weeks, recording industry defenders have said that we were jumping the gun in criticizing a potential plan because it wasn't final. Our point was that since the record labels claim they want a 'conversation,' these deals shouldn't be negotiated in backrooms not involving substantial stakeholders. So what happened here? Yup, a backroom deal was negotiated without any involvement from users. And it was done under the direction of Andrew Cuomo, who just spent many months browbeating ISPs into agreeing to censor content.

So, hopefully, we won't be told that we're being premature in criticizing this plan -- but somehow I find it unlikely.

This plan is hardly a major concession by the record labels and the RIAA. The lawsuit strategy was a massive failure in almost every facet. Giving them up is hardly a big deal. It's admitting what pretty much everyone else knew from the beginning: that suing your fans and customers is a monumentally dumb move. Ending a brain-dead, self-defeating policy is worthy of kudos, but only for finally recognizing the obvious -- not as some magnanimous gesture.

And in exchange for the RIAA stopping its policy of shooting itself in the foot, we get ISPs making a huge concession themselves, agreeing to become RIAA enforcers, despite the clear safe harbors they have via the DMCA. These ISPs will now be heavily involved in the process of policing their users, increasing their expense, which of course will be passed on to users.

But the biggest problem is the fact that this allows private organizations to judge users without any significant defense on their part. The stories of falsely accused file sharers are widespread at this point. IP address-based evidence is notoriously unreliable. Yet, the RIAA will be basing its notifications on such evidence. Sure, plenty of the IP addresses dug up by the RIAA are probably accurate, but we live in an innocent-until-proven-guilty world, and this does away with that completely.

Also, as the EU noted in rejecting this proposal, the 'punishment' hardly fits the crime. These days, an internet connection is a necessity -- and taking it away from people because someone is sharing the gift of music with others not for any sort of commercial gain is totally unbalanced. It takes away an individual's civil and privacy rights, all because the big record labels refuse to recognize that there are other business models out there that already work. And that final point may be the most important. As we noted in explaining why the music tax is a bad idea, none of these moves by the RIAA are actually necessary.

Musicians are figuring out plenty of fantastic business models that work wonders, and many of them actually involve embracing file sharing and using that to help grow their markets. What's wrong with letting those business models establish themselves, without brokering a totally unnecessary backroom deal that will almost certainly harm innocent people thanks to flimsy evidence?

So, yes, we're thrilled that the record labels have finally progressed to the point of realizing that mass lawsuits were a bad idea, but working out a backroom deal for a type of three strikes policy is not a particularly good solution. It's more of the same: trying to prop up an obsolete business model by a private industry unwilling or too stubborn to change with the market. That NY's Attorney General felt this private business model issue should involve his efforts in the midst of a huge financial crisis, including the largest Ponzi scheme ever, makes little sense.

If these are the 'new leaf' and 'open conversations' the record labels are insisting they're about these days, they've got an awful lot of work to do still.

(Via Techdirt.)

Evernote Teams Up with Eye-Fi for Wireless Photo Uploads

in , , , ,

Previously highlighted Eye-Fi—the SD card that wirelessly uploads images to your computer or the internet—has teamed up with popular note-taking application Evernote, allowing users to upload digital camera photos directly to Evernote without plugging in their camera. With Evernote's ability to recognize text in photos, it's an obvious win—and one more way you can expand your brain with Evernote. [Press Release]

(Via Lifehacker.)

Firefox Adds Multitouch Gestures for Macs

in , , , , ,

The latest beta version of Mozilla's Firefox browser brings built-in support for the multi-touch trackpads on modern Mac notebooks. Back in October, Mozilla's Eddie Lee produced an experimental version of Firefox which allowed Mac users to control the browser with multi-fingered gestures (no, not that kind). In v3.2 Beta 2, those gestures have been made official.

I gave it a try, and the gestures are even better than those in Apple's own browser, Safari. Here's the list of what you can do, provided by MacRumors. 'Swipe' means a three fingered sweep:

Swipe Left: Go back in history (hold Cmd to open it in a tab)
Swipe Right: Go forward in history
Swipe Up: Go to the top of the page
Swipe Down: Go to the end of the page
Pinch Together: Zoom out
Pinch Apart: Zoom in
Twist Right: Next tab
Twist Left: Previous tab

On my old (multibody?) MacBook Pro, the gestures are all supported. The 'pinch-to-zoom' differs from Safari's in that it will keep zooming as you move your fingers -- in Safari, each pinch motion only gives one level of zoom meaning you need to repeat the gesture to zoom more than one level.

The twist-to-switch-tabs gesture works a lot better than you'd think, including wrap-around so that once you get to the last tab, another clockwise tweak brings you to the first tab.

All in all, its very useful. It means that you can control almost every aspect of browsing with just one hand. Combined with the new 'Private Browsing' mode, this makes Firefox the go-to browser for XXX browsing.

Product page [Mozilla via MacRumors]

Original photo: Armangi/Flickr

(Via Wired: Gadget Lab.)