Tropical Storm Chris update: Prediction models

Sooooo this is why the forecasters have no idea where its going. 1/2 the models have it going south of Hispaniola (thats Cuba & the Dominica for you non-carribbean enlightened) and 1/2 the models have it going north. What is the significance of this you ask? Well one means it would probably remain a tropical storm until it comes out on the other side of Cuba and then turns into a minor cat 1 and slams into texas or mexico. The other means it will be a hurricane within 24 hours, make Key West take one for the team, emerge on the other side of the keys as a cat 1 maybe a 2, then head for louisiana or the pan handle direction. Katrina's little brother maybe? In any case, its way too early to tell but you can see for youself below why hurricane predicting is sooooo hard.

Chris Models Wed AM

Oh and if you're confused as to what prediction models are....basically various experts on hurricanes from all over the world at various corporations/universites etc etc have come up with various computer simulations that are to show where the hurricanes are to go. Of course none of them are even remotely right all of the time so this is what modern day forecasters do....they average them. If more of them lean one direction they average their paths(remember the suply & demand charts from microeconomics..) and come up with a mean plot. Thats why this particular map is soo iffy...just look at the various paths and where they all may lead. When hurricanes touch land it vastly changes and shapes their course, strength, structure etc etc.