WWDC Predictions Roundup & My Own Predictions
Tomorrow at 1:00 PM EST Steve Jobs takes the stage to unveil the details of Lion, iOS 5, and iCloud. This past week I wrote about how there were rumors that Twitter would be integrated deeply into iOS 5. Since I commented on those links, Robert Scoble claimed to have confirmation on this very topic. According to his Tweets on the matter, he appeared excited. Not sure how much stock I put into Scoble, as he is easily excitable, but he's right as often as he is wrong. We'll see I guess. Yesterday, Leander Kahney wrote for Cult of Mac:
When Apple reveals iCloud at WWDC on Monday, it’ll have the kind of impact the iPod has had, predicts Kevin Fox, a Silicon Valley software veteran who’s worked at Apple, Yahoo and Google. “The rumblings are huge,” says Fox, lead designer at Mozilla. Fox worked on Newton software before designing Yahoo’s chat service and then software for Google (including Gmail 1.0, Google Calendar 1.0, and Google Reader 2.0). He continues:
... given the complete failure of MobileMe over the last decade there’s no way Apple would introduce iCloud] on such a pedestal unless it’s incredible. My guess is that iCloud is to MobileMe as iPhone was to Newton: a complete, deep, polished solution after an underwhelming market failure. Leander was quoting from a post that Fox [wrote on his blog, Fury.com. I wont repost his long list of potential features as they aren't exactly predictions, but just things he's hoping to see. Go read them yourself. The latest supposed "exclusive" source was also reported by Leader Kahney at 4:33 am this morning. Before I go into what Leander posted this morning, I wish to link to this snippet John Gruber posted last week: New Airport Extreme and Time Capsule? Seth Weintraub: Our sources noted that Airport Express has been plentiful but supplies of TimeCapsule and Airport Extreme have been tightening globally the way products usually do before a refresh. What we do know is that Apple has been internally testing Time Capsules to cache Software Updates for both Mac and iOS devices. The way we’ve heard it works is that the new Time Capsule learns which devices connect to it via Wi-Fi. It then goes out to Apple’s servers and downloads Software Updates for those products. There might be something to this. What if this is a way for iOS devices to do software updates without being tethered to a Mac or PC — including device backups, synced when the device is charging? From John's commentary, I can't tell whether he has heard these same rumors himself and he is skeptical about them or if it's the first time he's hearing of them to. Whether this bit of information is right or wrong, I find it interesting that it mentions the Time Capsule. Now, to come back to Leander's "exclusive" post referenced above: In addition, it’s rumored that Apple’s wireless Time Capsule backup/router will get a big update. Here’s how iCloud and the new Time Capsule will work, according to a source close to the company who asked not be identified. It’s pretty surprising: According to the source, Apple has developed a system to make users’ Time Machine backups available through its new iCloud service. This is the “Home Folder” access concept that we’ve detailed before (how it will be accessed using NFC iPhones and the role of the Mac App Store). All your files and data — pictures, videos, Word and Excel documents, and so on — will be available anytime, anywhere, on both Mac OS X and iOS devices. The surprising thing is, iCloud won’t be fed through Apple’s massive new data center in North Carolina, as you might expect. Instead, the system will be based on Time Capsule, Apple’s wireless router and hard drive backup that’s currently sold in 1TB and 2TB versions. As rumored, Time Capsule will be updated, becoming less of a local backup and more of a personal cloud server, like the newer souped-up NAS (Network Attached Storage) drives from companies like Iomega (we reviewed one here). The new Time Capsule is rumored to run on iOS and come with embedded A4 or A5 CPUs. ... The source said it will be added to future versions of OS X and iOS — but they didn’t know which versions of OS X and iOS. There appears to be no sign of it in beta releases of Lion, which has been available to developers for months. Apple has kept iOS 5 under tight wraps, and it may be ready for this system. The article continues on explaining more details that aren't really newsworthy, but later on he updates the article to include: Actually, it looks like the technology is already built into Lion. The Auto Save, Versions and Resume features in Lion look an awful lot like a smart file-management system designed for the cloud, resembling the way iOS and Google Docs save and manage multiple versions of documents. In addition, Time Machine in Lion is tightly integrated with Versions, making it more of a realtime backup system. “… Versions] also appears to be used to make Time Machine much faster to open, as the Time Machine user interface can now access local snapshots take between remote backups, a sort of ‘instant Time Machine.’” See AppleInsider: Inside Mac OS X 10.7 Lion: Auto Save, File Versions and Time Machine I hope that his source is wrong. I was looking for a system that phones home to a server that Apple maintains for me. I do not wish to have to run a Time Capsule in my own home and be reliant on that for iCloud. Still though, Gruber's rumblings about Time Capsule and this mention of Time Capsule all in the span of one week... Where there is smoke, there is fire. Now, as I was keying this post, Gruber posted his typical WWDC-eve post with his 'official' predictions, or non-predictions. [John Gruber on Daring Fireball:
WWDC 2011 Prelude
WHAT I KNOW
If I were to publish everything I know regarding tomorrow’s announcements, it would be a short and decidedly unsensational article. What I know are a handful of minor features at the edges. The big picture regarding iOS 5 and iCloud — and how the two interrelate — is an utter mystery to me. These things have been as well-kept secrets as any major projects from Apple in recent years. iCloud’s expected music storage has of course leaked, but that’s almost certainly the inevitable result of Apple’s dealings with the music labels. Music storage is a feature of iCloud; iCloud is not a music service.
WHAT I’VE HEARD, AND BELIEVE, BUT BY NO MEANS KNOW AS FACT
The italicized sentence that follows is fourth-hand information, at best, and also the sort of thing that many of you might have already guessed based merely on your own hunches and hopes. But here goes: Don’t think of iCloud as the new MobileMe; think of iCloud as the new iTunes. Syncing data between devices tends to work best when there’s a canonical store. I.e. with Dropbox, you might have three, four, five devices syncing data on the same account. The canonical central store, however, is Dropbox’s cloud-based server. With iPhones, iPods, and iPads, the central store for almost all data stored on the devices is iTunes running on your Mac or PC. With iCloud, that should shift to the cloud. iTunes, the desktop app, currently syncs the following things with iOS devices: audio, movies and TV shows, iBooks e-books, App Store apps, contacts, calendars, bookmarks, notes, and any sort of files shared between iOS apps. All of these things would be better served syncing over-the-air via the so-called cloud. Gruber continues on, and you really should go read his entire piece, but I think the most important parts of what he wrote are quoted above. For what it's worth, I'll give my opinions, which are by no means backed by any sources of my own. In no particular order: 1. I think OS X Lion GM seed will be released to developers. It will be released as soon as June 14th but no later than June 28 to the public. 2. iOS 5 Developer Preview 1 will be released to developers. 3. I could maybe see iCloud DP1 being made available but has Apple ever released a developer preview of a web based app before other than the beta versions of Mobile Me Calendar & Mail last summer? Those didn't have APIs associated with them though. It seems like me they would need to preview them if they wanted developers to build them into their apps and test them though. This one is a big maybe. 4. Some sort of Twitter integration with iOS 5. Not sure if it will be a very simple share-your-photo-on-twitter menu item on the Send Menu in the Photos app or what. It could be "huge" as Scoble says. 5. iOS 5 / Lion / iCloud integration. Deep. I think iCloud needs to have this to avoid become just another Mobile Me iteration. 6. No hardware (of course). Just wanted to remind anyone who hasn't gotten the memo yet. 7. I have a hard time believing any of the Time Capsule related rumors. By locking iCloud into Time Capsule I feel Apple would be making a big mistake. I truly hope this is not the case. 8. iCloud will have some sort of streaming music component. 9. iOS 5 will have a revamped notifications system. I feel there will be much disappointment if it doesn't. I think Apple is well aware of this. 10. Improved interface for accessing, organizing, and viewing apps in iOS 5. Gruber makes a very good point. Folders helped alleviate this pain but it was akin to putting a bandaid on a compound fracture. Power users need a better solution and considering just how many apps are downloaded by all iOS users, not just the geeks are power users these days. I'm sure there will be much more news tomorrow than these 10 points I have listed here, but these 10 items are the ones I feel most confident about. Numbers 3, 7, and 10 are the ones I doubt the most, but I left them in there anyway.
