A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet

Chris Goodfellow at Autopia, Wired's Aviation blog, writes:

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well-remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed, I believe, in Columbus, Ohio in the 1980s. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually, but lost 30-odd souls. The 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. They simply ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what? The transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. Two plus two equals four. For me, that is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. He just didn’t have the time.

Read his entire piece (which I don't want to quote all of here). This is the most calm, logical, and reasoned answer I've seen yet. Don't tell CNN though, they are having fun with their on-air circus.

FiveThirtyEight Relaunches

Nate Silver, writing the new manifesto of the just relaunched FiveThirtyEight, "What The Fox Knows":

We’re not planning to abandon the story form at FiveThirtyEight. In fact, sometimes our stories will highlight individual cases, anecdotes. When we provide these examples, however, we want to be sure that we’ve contextualized them in the right way. Sometimes it can be extraordinarily valuable to explore an outlier in some detail. But the premise of the story should be to explain why the outlier is an outlier, rather than indicating some broader trend. To classify these stories appropriately, we’ll have to do a lot of work in the background before we publish them.

All of this takes time. That’s why we’ve elected to sacrifice something else as opposed to accuracy or accessibility. The sacrifice is speed — we’re rarely going to be the first organization to break news or to comment on a story. We’ve hired an extraordinary team of editors, led by Mike Wilson. In contrast to our writers, our editors largely do not have quantitative backgrounds. Instead, they will serve as the first (and second and third) line of defense to ensure that our coverage is both accurate and accessible. Where we do react more quickly, such as on DataLab, our blog-like product led by Mona Chalabi and Micah Cohen, we’re going to label our analysis as work in progress.

We are going to screw some things up. We hope our mistakes will be honest ones. We hope you’ll gain insight and pleasure from our approach to the news and that you’ll visit us from time to time. We hope to demonstrate the value of data journalism as a practical and sustainable proposition.

It’s time for us to start making the news a little nerdier.

Ben Thompson explains why sites like FiveThirtyEight and others will be so successful moving forward:

This, of course, is made possible by the Internet. No longer are my reading choices constrained by time and especially place. Why should I pick up the Wisconsin State Journal – or the Taipei Times – when I can read Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, Bill Simmons, and the myriad other links served up by Twitter? I, and everyone else interested in news, politics, or sports, can read the best with less effort – and cost – than it ever took to read the merely average just a few short years ago.

Sites like FiveThirtyEight, and Grantland are delightful to read and produce a quality product. If they ever stop doing so, other sites will do so instead. This is the power of the Internet. No longer does a mediocre local newspaper hold monopoly power over your news because you are unfortunate enough to live where you do and therefor are subjected to their distribution area as your only option of news. A lot has changed in 20 years. Sites like FiveThirtyEight, Grandland and others will probably hold as much prestige and respect 30-50 years from now as organizations such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal do today.

Except they aren't tied to annoying things such as location or paper.

I for one welcome our new nerdier news overlords.

Watch This: A Lie Agreed Upon: David Milch's Deadwood

A video essay to mark the 10th anniversary of David Milch's landmark HBO series "Deadwood". Presented by RogerEbert.com and Hitfix.com Narrated by Jim Beaver Written & Produced by Matt Zoller Seitz Edited by Steven Santos

Thanks to Jason Kottke, at Kottke.org for posting this:

For the show's 10th anniversary, a video essay about Deadwood, perhaps the best three-season show that'll ever be. Written and produced by Matt Zoller Seitz for RogerEbert.com.

Deadwood the series is a whole heck of a lot of things, in no particular order. And it's that "in no particular order" part that makes it so rich.

Jason credits @djacobs as his source.

Ballmer Threatened to Quit if Microsoft Board Did Not Back His Pursuit of Nokia

Thanks for Dave Mark at the Loop for this find.

Dina Bass, Beth Jinks and Peter Burrows writing for BloombergBusinessweek:

Ballmer’s relations with the board hit a low when he shouted at a June meeting that if he didn’t get his way he couldn’t be CEO, people briefed on the meeting said. The flare-up was over his proposed purchase of most of Nokia Oyj (NOK1V), and part of an ongoing debate: Should Microsoft be a software company or a hardware company too?

Several directors and co-founder and then-Chairman Bill Gates — Ballmer’s longtime friend and advocate — initially balked at the move into making smartphones, according to people familiar with the situation. So, at first, did Nadella, signaling his position in a straw poll to gauge executives’ reaction to the deal. Nadella later changed his mind.

If I were Microsoft's board I would have called his bluff. It would have saved them from a probably horrible acquisition and gotten rid of the dead weight.