State of the Race - Electoral Math - 8/14/08
The 8/1 edition of this feature is here, when the tally was Obama 336, McCain 202. Remember, I award states to whoever leads in the Pollster.com polling aggregates.
For this edition, Obama has actually slipped a bit and now wins Obama 312, McCain 226.
Compared to two weeks ago, Obama has lost his razor thin lead in Florida, though McCain's 1.6-point lead isn't exactly commanding. The state is effectively deadlocked. In Obama's favor, Alaska is now a narrow Obama lead. Like Montana, it's hard to believe that Alaska would sport even a temporary Obama lead, but it's that kind of year. Obama truly is outperforming past tickets in the West. It's east of the Mississippi were things tighten up most.
Now let's look at the map with competitive states yellowed out:
I consider a state "competitive" if it's within single digits in the polling, and thus far, about half the states remain competitive. But if you tally up the EVs, you see that Obama is sitting in much more solid ground.
Two weeks ago, Obama had 210 electoral votes in his safe column, essentially his base states, compared to 72 EVs for McCain. . This week, it's Obama 200, McCain 82. Oregon, which has been giving Obama a roughly 10-point lead, has tightened up slightly, given him a 7-point lead. And Delaware should've been in yellow all along, since an old SUSA poll in February gave Obama a 9-point lead. It's not really a competitive state, but by the rules of this exercise, I must include it.
Bottom line, Obama has 200 solid EVs out of the 270 electoral votes he needs, while McCain needs 188 of the remaining 253 EVs, or a whopping 74 percent of them, to win the election.
Why oh why isn't Obama doing better! This is all great news for McCain.
One more exercise -- I tightened the "swing state" screen to states where the margins are closer than five points:
This map gives us Obama 264, McCain 154. That leaves 120 EVs up for grabs, of which McCain must win 97 percent to win the election. Al Obama has to do is pick up six more EVs from those yellow states. Nevada has five, Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota each have three, the rest of those yellow states would single-handedly push Obama over the top.
I don't know how the news for Obama can get any worse than this...
John McCain & Press Access
Article courtesy of DailyKOS.
There's just 84 days until the election, but more and more, John McCain's campaign is doing everything they can to shield their candidate from the press. Apparently fed up with foreign policy blunder, after blunder, after blunder, and mixed messages on exactly who speaks for John McCain, along with his habit of being known:
...to sign off on big campaign decisions and then to march off his own reservation.
...the McCain campaign decided to clamp down. After all, they don't want McCain ruining another great GOP tire gauge give-away. So they cut off access to the traveling press, and now are trying:
...to cut down on Mr. McCain’s use of his cellphone and limit the people who have regular access to Mr. McCain in an effort to keep him more focused, advisers said.
Yes, this wannabe leader of the free world is on friend and phone restriction so he doesn't get distracted. But you can't really blame the campaign when McCain continues to serve up gems like this:
I think the thing that helps me, I probably -- I don't know if you like this much detail -- if I can sleep in to about 7:30 or 8, then it really helps me. When I get up real early, like 5:30 or 6, then, you know, you don't go to bed until 10, 10:30 or 11 -- it seems to help me to get up a little later in the morning. [...]I just get a little more tired. Never cranky, or testy. I just think I do better. I kinda can tell, and I think [my staff] can tell you, if I put in three or four 18-hour, 20-hour days in a row, then I'm not sharp. It's just a fact. I can be sharp if I get a little more rest.
Yes, there's an image you want to project...a president who won't be too sharp when that 3:00 a.m. call comes, and won't be up to speed without a solid eight hours.
So, it looks like the McCain campaign's strategy for the duration is going to be to try and keep screw-ups to a minimum and the press at a distance. Which is quite a change from the vow McCain made about press access in the days after he was implicated in the Keating Five scandal:
I would henceforth accept every single request for an interview from any source, prominent or obscure, and answer every question as completely and straightforwardly as I could...It is a public relations strategy that I have followed to this day, and while it has gotten me in trouble from time to time, it has on the whole served both my interest and that of the public well. [Worth Fighting For - page 192]
Apparently John McCain has decided that public interest is going to have to take a back seat to self interest.