Sarah Palin: Betraying McCain's desperation

From DailyKOS:

After being told lack of experience, youth, and popularity were bad things, McCain is picking the inexperienced and young Sarah Palin for veep.

Given her current ethical troubles, it seems par for the GOP course. And Republicans nationally will be thrilled to hear that her husband works in Big Oil. But at least McCain gets to lock down Alaska.

Update: Kay Bailey Hutchinson on CNN:

I really don't know that much about her.

CNN's gasbag: "She knows how to eat a mooseburger!" Um. Okay. Glad that constitutional requirement has been met.

But really, it's funny seeing the top Republican woman say, "I don't know a damn thing about her, and that's a good thing!"


Let's be honest: John McCain clearly wanted Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman, but he was afraid to buck his party's choice ideologues. So then they looked at Mittens, but having a baker's dozen homes wasn't looking so hot. So he figured that with Pawlenty, he might make a play for Minnesota, but that got shot down over the last week as it become increasingly obvious that Biden would wipe the floor with him in their debate.

Throw in Obama's ground-shifting speech last night, and it was clear that McCain had to throw a hail mary to just remain in the game, much less be competitive.

So we get Sarah Palin, who has a fairly compelling personal story and is an attractive woman, but has scant political experience, zero name recognition outside of political junky circles, faces an ethical investigation by her own legislature, and will now be forced to run a grueling national campaign despite having an infant child at home.

Those are the marks of desperation, and really, given his precarious electoral position, John McCain had no choice.

Update: MSNBC chatter:

Chuck Todd

They really wanted to pick a woman, and there were no obvious choices.

Pat Buchanan
Biggest political gamble I believe just about in American political history...that is not hyberbole.  I can think of no choice of VP that approaches this.

Joe Scarborough
I can't imagine a woman that's been a governor for a year and a half, but to debate Joe Biden on GEorgia, a remerging Russia, an emerging China and India, on the Middle East, my God, how does she do that?

Taking "experience" off the table


The Sarah Palin pick is an abandonment of the "Obama is not ready to lead" attack lines. Those are dead, and to be honest, while that line didn't work for Hillary and it had limited traction for McCain, it still had some traction. That attack line is gone.

Palin is also a an ideologue, on choice, on the environment, on energy -- all the way down the line. This an ideological pick in an election where self-identified Republicans are a dying breed and Democratic self-identification is skyrocketing. McCain has abandoned any notion of playing for the center. He's looking to shore up his right flank and hoping that the Evangelical Right can somehow drag McCain over the line.

Update: Ouch.

In an interview just a month ago, she dissed the job, saying it didn’t seem “productive.”

In fact, she said she doesn’t know what the vice president does.

Larry Kudlow of CNBC’s “Kudlow & Co.” asked her about the possibility of becoming McCain ticket mate.
Palin replied: “[A]s for that V.P. talk all the time, I’ll tell you, I still can’t answer that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the V.P. does every day? I’m used to being very productive and working real hard in an administration. We want to make sure that that V.P .slot would be a fruitful type of position, especially for Alaskans and for the things that we’re trying to accomplish up here for the rest of the U.S., before I can even start addressing that question.”


John Marshal, of Talking Points Memo:


Palin's the One

So now we've learned that Sarah Palin is McCain's choice for nominee. I have to say. It's a daring pick but I think a very weak pick. I'm perfectly happy with it. Palin is in the midst of a reasonably serious scandal in her home state. Her brother-in-law is a state trooper who is in the midst of an ugly custody battle with her sister. And she's accused of getting the state police to fire him. Recently she was forced to admit that one of her aides had done this, though she insists she didn't know.

Next, John McCain's central and best argument in this campaign is that Barack Obama simply lacks the experience to be President of the United States. And now John McCain, who is a cancer survivor who turns 72 years old today, is picking a vice presidential nominee who has been governor of a small state for less than two years and prior to that was mayor of a town with roughly one-thirtieth of the citizens that Barack Obama represented when he was a state representative in Illinois.

Whatever you think of Barack Obama's qualifications to be Vice Presidential, Palin is manifestly less qualified. And that undermines the central premise of Obama's campaign.

--Josh Marshall


Update from DailyKOS:

As much as the know-nothing media talked about divided Democrats, Obama felt no need to use his VP pick to rally the base and unite his party. Biden was picked precisely because Obama felt he was the best pick for the ticket, not because he needed to mollify one group or another.

Now we see McCain's pick of Palin, and it's clear that he was forced to kow-tow to the Huckabee/Dobson wing of the Republican Party. We already know she is virulently anti-choice. But did you know she is a creationist?

The volatile issue of teaching creation science in public schools popped up in the Alaska governor's race this week when Republican Sarah Palin said she thinks creationism should be taught alongside evolution in the state's public classrooms. Palin was answering a question from the moderator near the conclusion of Wednesday night's televised debate on KAKM Channel 7 when she said, "Teach both. You know, don't be afraid of information.

Two years ago, Palin was part-time mayor of a village of 6,000. Today, she's supposedly ready to step in to run this country in the eventuality that Sen. McCentury can no longer perform those duties? Right. This was a sop to the Right, which was unwilling to accept a pro-choice Republican on the ticket, and a pathetic and hilariously desperate effort to grab the 17 holdout PUMAs (who are fake Democrats already willing to vote for McCain anyway).

Storm Update: Hurricane Gustav

Tropical Storm Gustav has regained near hurricane strength this morning and may poses a threat to the US and Mexico next week. There is a lot of uncertainty and always a chance the storm will fizzle out or move away from populated areas. But an educated guess based on current data suggests something like a 50/50 chance that Gustav could make landfall early next week as a hurricane somewhere on the US Gulf Coast.

The image right shows the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for the Gulf of Mexico on August 24, 2008. The TCHP is a measure of storm producing and storm intensifying heat potential contained in given volume of ocean (The units are Kilojoules per square centimeter, not degrees).

The arrows between the Yucatan and west end of Cuba that turn and flow past the tip of Florida represent the Loop Current. The Loop is a massive current of warm, deep water that acts like a turbo-charger on any atmopsheric heat engine that might pass nearby. And, sometimes, pieces of the current break off ... Jeff Masters takes it from there:

When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. ... This year, we had another Loop Current Eddy break off in July. This eddy is now positioned due south of New Orleans (Figure 2), and this eddy has similar levels of heat energy to the 2005 eddy that powered Katrina and Rita. Should Gustav pass over or just to the left of this eddy, we can expect the storm to significantly intensify.

The Aug 2008 Loop Current and breakaway hotspots are just one piece in a puzzle that's looking more and more similar to the 2004 and 2005 record setting storm seasons. If you live in or near a risk area, make plans, stock up now, know exactly where nearby shelters are. Pay attention to NHC updates, know what routes you are going to take and, if possible, your end destination in the event you have to evacuate. Better yet, for those in especially high risk areas, consider celebrating an extended Labor Day weekend well inland with friends or family.

Former Virginia Governor's Comment On Science At Convention Lights Up Twitter

Reposted from Wired

It didn't ignite the crowd at the Pepsi Center in Denver Tuesday night in the same way as Hillary Clinton's speech did, but the 2008 Democratic National Convention keynoter of former Virginia Governor Mark Warner lit up the micro-blogging service Twitter as its geek community celebrated a throwaway line in Warner's speech.

Warner, a former Capitol Hill staffer for senator Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut) and telecommunications entrepreneur, focused his speech on creating an environment that keeps America competitive in the global economy.

In a one-liner, he quipped: "Just think about this: In four months, we will have an administration that actually believes in science!"

It was as if Warner were acknowledging a constituency that feels as if the Bush administration had thrown a Harry Potter invisible cloak over it for the past eight years. Many members of that online constituency poked their heads out from under the cloak on Twitter.

"In four months, we'll have an administration that actually believes in science. lol, but YEAH!" tweeted kmcg.

"My fav from 2nite: 'Just think about this: in six months we will have an administration that actually believes in science'-Mark Warner; YES!" agreed tujaded.

Those were just two of a slew of comments on Twitter reacting to Warner's remark. Here's a quick summary:


  • jlangenbeck: "Warner's speech was fantastic. We have to fund and tech to save this nation and remain competitive,"

  • epolitics: "Diggin' me some Mark Warner.  Science! (poetry in motion)"

  • dagsalot: "I'm a big fan of former Gov. Mark Warner right now. 'Think, in 4 months, we could have a presidency that believes in science!' It'd be nice!"

  • twitterdoug: "Best line of Warner's speech so far -- In four months we will have an administration that believes in science."


During his talk, Warner also pointed to the importance of broadband rollout, education and job training to keep jobs from migrating to India, referring to his own efforts as governor to revive small towns in Virginia.

"We delivered broadband to the most remote areas of our state, because if you can send a job to Bangalore, India, you can sure as heck send one to Danville, Virginia, and to Flint, Michigan, and to Scranton, Pennsylvania, and to Peoria, Illinois," he said. "In a global economy, you shouldn't have to leave your hometown to find a world-class job."

The Democrats have made broadband rollout part of their party platform, and both Obama and Warner have expressed support for net neutrality.

For McCain, It’s All About Ohio

All this hand-wringing over the national poll numbers is misplaced. Watch the swing state numbers, and especially, watch Ohio.

via  538.com

Like every other junkie, I've been checking 538 every day, but I noticed something for the first time yesterday: based on their models, McSame has less than a 1% chance of winning the election without winning Ohio.

That's right -- it's practically impossible for McSame to lose Ohio and win the election.

Why?

The simple fact is, there's just not that many big red states. If you put Ohio in the blue column, McSame has to pull an upset in Michigan, where he currently trails by 7 while simultaneously holding Obama off in Virginia (where he's down 1), Nevada (up 2), Montana (down 3) and Colorado (down 2).

Failing that, he'd have to cobble together a whole series of upsets, like New Mexico (where he's down 5), Minnesota (down 7) and Iowa (down 5). But even then, that would also mean that McSame would have to win just about every state where Obama's pushing him -- states like Colorado, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

There's a handy electoral college map simulator here. See for yourself.

The whole thing's going to come down to Ohio, again. It's a big union state that gave Bush the election by about 100,000 votes in 2004. Rove's secret weapon that year was a same-sex marriage ban initiative which helped drive social conservative turnout, and tipped the scales to Bush and the GOP.

Ohio had serious buyer's remorse, because in 2006, they promptly kicked out every major Republican office holder in the state and elected a Democratic governor and senator.

Latest polls show Obama with a 2-point lead. If you live in Ohio, you know what to do.

Article courtesy of FireDogLake.

State of the Race - Electoral Math - 8/14/08

The 8/1 edition of this feature is here, when the tally was Obama 336, McCain 202. Remember, I award states to whoever leads in the Pollster.com polling aggregates.

For this edition, Obama has actually slipped a bit and now wins Obama 312, McCain 226.

Compared to two weeks ago, Obama has lost his razor thin lead in Florida, though McCain's 1.6-point lead isn't exactly commanding. The state is effectively deadlocked. In Obama's favor, Alaska is now a narrow Obama lead. Like Montana, it's hard to believe that Alaska would sport even a temporary Obama lead, but it's that kind of year. Obama truly is outperforming past tickets in the West. It's east of the Mississippi were things tighten up most.

Now let's look at the map with competitive states yellowed out:

I consider a state "competitive" if it's within single digits in the polling, and thus far, about half the states remain competitive. But if you tally up the EVs, you see that Obama is sitting in much more solid ground.

Two weeks ago, Obama had 210 electoral votes in his safe column, essentially his base states, compared to 72 EVs for McCain. . This week, it's Obama 200, McCain 82. Oregon, which has been giving Obama a roughly 10-point lead, has tightened up slightly, given him a 7-point lead. And Delaware should've been in yellow all along, since an old SUSA poll in February gave Obama a 9-point lead. It's not really a competitive state, but by the rules of this exercise, I must include it.

Bottom line, Obama has 200 solid EVs out of the 270 electoral votes he needs, while McCain needs 188 of the remaining 253 EVs, or a whopping 74 percent of them, to win the election.

Why oh why isn't Obama doing better! This is all great news for McCain.

One more exercise -- I tightened the "swing state" screen to states where the margins are closer than five points:

This map gives us Obama 264, McCain 154. That leaves 120 EVs up for grabs, of which McCain must win 97 percent to win the election. Al Obama has to do is pick up six more EVs from those yellow states. Nevada has five, Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota each have three, the rest of those yellow states would single-handedly push Obama over the top.

I don't know how the news for Obama can get any worse than this...

Reposted from DailyKOS.

John McCain & Press Access

Article courtesy of DailyKOS.

There's just 84 days until the election, but more and more, John McCain's campaign is doing everything they can to shield their candidate from the press. Apparently fed up with foreign policy blunder, after blunder, after blunder, and mixed messages on exactly who speaks for John McCain, along with his habit of being known:

...to sign off on big campaign decisions and then to march off his own reservation.

...the McCain campaign decided to clamp down. After all, they don't want McCain ruining another great GOP tire gauge give-away. So they cut off access to the traveling press, and now are trying:
...to cut down on Mr. McCain’s use of his cellphone and limit the people who have regular access to Mr. McCain in an effort to keep him more focused, advisers said.

Yes, this wannabe leader of the free world is on friend and phone restriction so he doesn't get distracted. But you can't really blame the campaign when McCain continues to serve up gems like this:
I think the thing that helps me, I probably -- I don't know if you like this much detail -- if I can sleep in to about 7:30 or 8, then it really helps me. When I get up real early, like 5:30 or 6, then, you know, you don't go to bed until 10, 10:30 or 11 -- it seems to help me to get up a little later in the morning. [...]

I just get a little more tired. Never cranky, or testy. I just think I do better. I kinda can tell, and I think [my staff] can tell you, if I put in three or four 18-hour, 20-hour days in a row, then I'm not sharp. It's just a fact. I can be sharp if I get a little more rest.


Yes, there's an image you want to project...a president who won't be too sharp when that 3:00 a.m. call comes, and won't be up to speed without a solid eight hours.

So, it looks like the McCain campaign's strategy for the duration is going to be to try and keep screw-ups to a minimum and the press at a distance. Which is quite a change from the vow McCain made about press access in the days after he was implicated in the Keating Five scandal:

I would henceforth accept every single request for an interview from any source, prominent or obscure, and answer every question as completely and straightforwardly as I could...It is a public relations strategy that I have followed to this day, and while it has gotten me in trouble from time to time, it has on the whole served both my interest and that of the public well. [Worth Fighting For - page 192]

Apparently John McCain has decided that public interest is going to have to take a back seat to self interest.