What Caused the Budget Deficit?

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David Leonhardt wote a great article breaking down the sources of the budget deficit. Leonhardt works for The New York Times, so they didn’t see fit to illustrate his article with a pie chart but Matthew Yglesias did.

— “The first category — the business cycle — accounts for 37 percent of the $2 trillion swing.”

— Second, Bush-era legislation “like his tax cuts and the Medicare prescription drug benefit, [that] not only continue to cost the government but have also increased interest payments on the national debt.”

— Third, “Obama’s main contribution to the deficit is his extension of several Bush policies, like the Iraq war and tax cuts for households making less than $250,000 [...] 20 percent of the swing.”

— Fourth, “About 7 percent comes from the stimulus bill that Mr. Obama signed in February.”

— Fifth, “only 3 percent comes from Mr. Obama’s agenda on health care, education, energy and other areas.”

In other words, the very high deficits are not Obama’s fault according to any normal way of assessing political blame. That said, large deficits aren’t a moral failing that we need to hold someone accountable for. Rather, they’re a potential future practical problem that will have to be solved. Doing that will probably require a mixture of higher taxes, somewhat more hard-core health care reform that is likely to pass in 2009, and reductions in defense and possibly Social Security outlays. I don’t really find it especially surprising or alarming that nobody wants to vote for any of those things in 2009. After all, nobody who has to stand for election really wants to do any of that stuff. And the deficit isn’t a problem in 2009 and almost certainly won’t be in 2010. The main issue is whether Congress will be prepared to take tough measures when and if doing so actually proves necessary. Meanwhile, the health reforms being debated in congress will get us some of the way to where we need to be, and also hopefully lay the groundwork for further measures if the best hopes about what’s currently on the table don’t wind up materializing. The simple fact of the matter, after all, is that nobody really knows what the impact of something like comparative effectiveness research will be. It could save a lot of money, or it might not—we might just get healthier while spending a similar amount of money. But if we get it in place sooner rather than later, we’ll know and be in a position to act.

The Town Hall Mob

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If you read one thing today, read this:

 

Ehkzu

Palo Alto, California August 7th, 2009 11:36 am

My fellow Democrats: We're in for the fight of our lives. I know more about what we're up against than most Democrats, because I'm married to a staunch Republican, attend a church that's 90+% Republican, and have many friends among them. I'm also a sociologist by training and a debater by practice.


Based on all this, here's some heartfelt advice:

1. Don't call them racists.

It's a Rovian trap to do so--one set by the Republican leadership and their healthcare denial industry paymasters. They never, ever say "We hate Obama because he's black," even if everything they do would make it reasonable to think so.

But when you call them racists, you've just changed the topic from healthcare reform to a territory they can defend. And while you're trying to prove they're racists, the RNC will be rubbing its hands, as the topic of healthcare is forgotten.

2. Don't let them call Obama and the Democratic Party and you socialists.

And they will. Count on it. I usually say: "Socialism means ownership of business by government. Democrats don't want to own it. We just want to regulate it. We tried business without regulation twice in the last century. It got us the Great Depression and now the worst recession since that. But help me out. Republicans seem to want ownership of government by business. What do you call that?"

And as Krugman points out, they don't want "socialized healthcare" but they're often on Medicare.

The other advanced countries--all democracies--have everything ranging from heavily regulated private systems to mostly socialized ones. All of them are far cheaper than our system; all of them have better health outcomes than our system. And not one of those countries' electorates have ever shown the slightest interest in adopting our system.

Guess why? They don't want to die while some for-profit insurance company denies your request for a new kidney, hoping that if they slow-foot your claim you will in fact die before they're forced to honor it.

And by the way...cops and firemen are "socialized safety."

3. They'll say most Americans are happy with their current healthcare.

I say wait 'till you or a loved one gets really sick. After all, if you ran a health insurance company, and your only goal was profit, what would you do when a customer got really, really sick?

You'd get rid of him, using your army of bureaucrats whose main job is to find excuses for recission--that's cutting off someone's insurance by saying you didn't dot an "i" somewhere on your application.

That's why I call these companies the "Healthcare denial industry." Very few people who've actually had catastrophic illness are happy with their healthcare insurance. And even those who say they're happy may not have noticed how their healthcare premiums have doubled in the last few years, because it's why you didn't get a raise--it's often hidden in your overall compensation.

4. They'll say they don't want the government telling them when to die, and as Krugman points out, even Republican congressmen are saying this.

People this far gone can rarely be reached, but I just say "The people you think are on your side are actually vampires sucking your blood; the people you think are out to destroy you and America are actually trying to save you--and you're throwing away the life vest they've thrown you because the predators pretending to be your friends told you it's a bomb."

Bottom line: the Republican healthcare plan is the alternative to the Democrats' attempt at healthcare reform. What's that plan, you say? Easy. It's the healthcare reform plan Congress passed during the 12 years the Republican Party controlled Congress and the six years it controlled all three branches of government:

[nothing]

That's right, folks. That's their healthcare reform package. Nothing. Excuse me if I don't include their pharmaceutical industry giveaway that masqueraded as Medicare drug assistance. Other than that phony plan that ordered government agencies to pay whatever price the drug companies chose to charge...nothing.

The healthcare denial industry has grown to swallow up 1/6 of the entire American economy, gutting our competitiveness on the world market, through keeping things exactly as they are. Without healthcare reform the current system will take up 1/3 of the entire economy in a few years.

It's unsustainable. You think Medicare and Social Security are headed for trouble? That's nothing compared to this.

Most of all, the Republicans want their rank and file to think we Democrats are their enemy; that we want to turn America into some alien place they won't recognize.

And they want Democrats to treat Republican rank and file as their enemy, so we'll never realize we both have the same enemy: the bloodsucking billionaires who pull the strings in the shadows. They're practising divide and conquer. And they're very, very good at it.

So remember who the real enemy is.

http://www.blogzu.blogspot.com

North Korea Pardons Two Jailed Journalists After Bill Clinton's Visit

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Euna Lee and Laura Ling Could Board a Plane Back for U.S. as Early as Tonight, Sources Say

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has issued a "special pardon" to two American journalists convicted of sneaking into the country illegally, and he ordered them released during a visit by former U.S. President Bill Clinton, North Korean media reported Tuesday.

The release of Laura Ling and Euna Lee was a sign of North Korea's "humanitarian and peaceloving policy," the Korean Central News Agency reported.

Clinton, who arrived in North Korea earlier in the day on an unannounced visit, met with the reclusive and ailing Kim — his first meeting with a prominent Western figure since his reported stroke nearly a year ago.

North Korea accused Ling, 32, and Lee, 36, of sneaking into the country illegally in March and engaging in "hostile acts," and the nation's top court sentenced them in June to 12 years of hard labor.

From an ABC article:

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Il pardoned today two jailed U.S. journalists , Laura Ling and Euna Lee, just hours after former President Bill Clinton arrived in the country to press for their release.

The pardons were announced by North Korea's state-run news agency, The Associated Press reported.

Clinton, who took a surprise trip to the country to negotiate the release of the two journalists, met with them earlier in what was a very emotional meeting, a government source told ABC News.

The source, who has knowledge of the Clinton team's mission, was hopeful that the two will leave North Korea tonight for the United States, possibly even on the same plane as Clinton.

Clinton arrived in Pyongyang early Tuesday and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il to talk about the two journalists, who were arrested after straying into the country while they were reporting on the Chinese-North Korean border. Ling and Lee were later convicted and sentenced to 12 years hard labor.

The White House today had little to say about the former president's visit except to stress that this is a "private mission."

"It's a little sensitive," said Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. "We will have more to say on this hopefully later on."

Gibbs denied reports by North Korea's state media that Clinton carried a message from President Obama to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. The Korean Central News Agency said that Clinton 'courteously' conveyed a verbal message from Obama, and that Kim expressed thanks and engaged in "sincere talks" with Clinton. The defense ministry hosted a banquet at the state VIP house for the former president, according to North Korea's state media.

"While this solely private mission to secure the release of two Americans is on the ground, we will have no comment. We do not want to jeopardize the success of former President Clinton's mission," Gibbs said in a statement released earlier toady.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, en route to Africa on a state trip, would not comment until her husband's mission was complete, a senior U.S. official told reporters.

Arriving at Pyongyang in a specially chartered, unmarked jet, Clinton was greeted warmly by a young girl bearing flowers and top North Korean officials, including chief nuclear negotiator Kim Kyegwan.

Sources told ABC News that Clinton's trip, while a surprise to some, was planned weeks ago and that it was former Vice President Al Gore who asked Clinton to go. Clinton was accompanied by his former Chief of Staff, John Podesta, who officials said was also involved in the planning.

A senior U.S. official told ABC News that "while mission is in progress, we will have no comment. Our interest is the safe return of the journalists."

Clinton's trip fulfills one of North Korea's two demands -- a visit from a high-profile emissary. As former president and husband of the current secretary of state, there could be few people of higher profile, and Gore founded Current TV, where the two journalists worked.

North Korea's second demand -- an apology -- was fulfilled by Hillary Clinton just a few weeks ago.

"The young women themselves have, apparently, admitted that they probably did trespass, so they are deeply regretful and we are very sorry it's happened," the former first lady said in an interview with ABC News last month. "Our most important goal is to make sure they get home safe."

Hillary Clinton's words were a clear departure from the administration's early rhetoric, and she also acknowledged that the State Department changed its approach in trying to free the two journalists. In June, she told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos that the charges against Lee and Ling were "absolutely without merit or foundation."

One thing about Clinton's trip is clear: He would not have gone to North Korea unless he was certain he would be coming back with the two journalists.

 

Laura Ling and Euna Lee

Ling and Lee were detained by North Korea in March for illegally entering the country. At the time, they were working on a story about human trafficking for Current TV along the Chinese-North Korean border. The two admitted crossing the border illegally and apologized.

But in June, Ling and Lee were found guilty of "hostilities against the Korean nation and illegal entry" and sentenced to 12 years of hard labor by North Korea's highest Central Court.

Many feared that the two would be used as bargaining chips by North Korea, whose nuclear ambitions remain undeterred despite tougher sanctions and stern rhetoric.

The U.S. has repeatedly requested amnesty for the women, and the Obama administration considered for weeks whether to send a special envoy to the communist state. But the negotiation had been drifting while North Korea ran a string of nuclear and missile tests in defiance of United Nations resolutions.

Ling's sister, National Geographic contributor Lisa Ling, expressed her concern to ABC in an interview with "Good Morning America" in June.

"She has a recurring ulcer," Lisa Ling said. "And we know that she has been allowed to receive some medication. But we, we know that her doctor is very concerned. He has written a letter, appealing to the North Korean government to at least allow her to see a physician. And as we all know, ulcers are exacerbated by stress."

Lee's husband, Michael Saldate, left to take care of the couple's 4-year-old daughter, said he has told his daughter Hannah only that her mother is at work.

Earlier this summer, Lisa Ling told ABC News' Bob Woodruff that she dreamed of the moment of her sister's release.

"It's a scene that I've kind of replayed over and over in my head. I just hope it comes soon," an emotional Ling said.

And that hope may soon turn into reality. U.S. government officials now say that the journalists could be released within days.

"For North Koreans, pride and saving face is very important," said Yoo Ho-Yeol, professor of North Korean Studies at Korea University in Seoul. "So if an American president who is favorable to North Korea personally flies to Pyongyang and ask for amnesty, that's a good enough reason to let the women go."

Clinton would be the second former U.S. president, after President Carter, to visit the reclusive communist state. Carter traveled to Pyongyang in 1994, when Clinton was in office, and met with then-North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, father of the current leader Kim Jong-Il.

Carter's visit led to a breakthrough deal in which North Korea was to dismantle its nuclear program in exchange for oil. The deal -- the so-called 'Agreed Framework' -- fell apart after President George W. Bush listed North Korea as part of the 'axis of evil'.

Clinton was widely expected to make a state visit to Pyongyang during his time in office, but it never happened, as his administration at the time chose to focus on Middle East issues.

 

Bill Clinton is THE MAN.

Keith Olbermann exposes the money behind the resistance to health care reform - MUST SEE

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Keith Olbermann, raring to go after a returning from his vacation, delivers a blistering special comment on Republicans -- and Blue Dog Dems -- who have become wholly-owned subsidiaries of the health insurance industry:

Some highlights:

PBS pointed out that the health and insurance industries are spending more than a 1,400,000 dollars a day, just to destroy the "public option" - the truly non-profit, wieldy, round-up and not round-down, government, from helping you pay your medical bills with about a billionth of the recklessness with which it is still paying Halliburton and its spin-offs to kill your kids.

And much of this money is going to, and through, Republicans.

But that’s the real point tonight. Not all of it is going through Republicans. Because the evil truth is, the Insurance industry, along with Hospitals, HMO’s, Pharma, nursing homes — it owns Democrats, too.

Not the whole party.

They’ve called themselves "Blue Dogs," and they are out there, hand- in-hand with the Republicans, who they are happy to condemn day and night on everything else, throatily singing "Kumbaya" with the men and women who were bought and sold to defend this con game of an American health care system against the slightest encroachment.

Senator Max Baucus of Montana. Good evening, Senator.

So you’re supposed to be negotiating all this out with the Republicans and the hesitant Democrats, to gain bi-partisanship with a wholly-owned subsidiary of the health sector? Bipartisanship that will get you, what? A total of no votes?

You were not elected to create a Democratic majority. You were elected to restore this country.

You were not elected to serve the corporations and the trusts who the government has enabled for these last eight years.

You were elected to serve the people. And if you fail to pass or support this legislation, the full wrath of the progressive and the moderate movements in this country will come down on your heads.

Explain yourselves not to me, but to them. They elected you. And in the blink of an eye, they will replace you.

If you will behave as if you are Republicans — as if you are the prostitutes of our system — you will be judged as such. And you will lose not merely our respect. You will lose your jobs!

 

 

Firefox 3.5 Released

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Firefox

You may already be running Firefox 3.5, if you grabbed it early from Mozilla’s FTP servers, where it’s been available for a little while now, but if not, head over to Mozilla.com to update. I’ve been using the Beta and the Release Candidate versions for some time, and aside from the usual incompatibility with a few add-ons, I can tell you that 3.5 not only works great, but also packs some useful new features.

For most users, the first thing you’ll notice is how much faster Firefox 3.5 is compared with the previous version. There are a lot of reasons for the speed improvements, but one of them is the new TraceMonkey JavaScript engine that is much more efficient when dealing with resource-hogging web apps. There’s a great post over at WebWorkerDaily that goes into more detail about how that works and what it means.

My personal favorite new feature is the ability to tear off tabs and move them to new windows, something which I used to have to use a plug-in to accomplish. I can’t count how many times I need to do this on a daily basis when I’m referencing something for an article, or for debugging code and HTML.

Here’s a brief list of some of the highlights of the new version to whet your appetite (and more here):

  • Private Browsing and Clear Recent History features.
  • Location aware browsing via geolocation.
  • Gecko engine 1.9.1, with many rendering process improvements.
  • HTML5, downloadable fonts and other new CSS property support, JavaScript query selectors, HTML5 offline data storage for applications, and SVG transforms.
  • Open video support, meaning that you won’t have to download any plug-ins or use external viewers to watch web video content.
  • Improvements to session restore, anti-phishing and malware, the Awesome Bar, and browser customization.

Check out the full Release Notes for 3.5 from Mozilla for a complete list of new features and additions.