This Is What Demographic Suicide Looks Like

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A new poll from DailyKos/Research 2000 shows Latino support for the Republican Party dropping like a stone, perhaps due to the racist attacks on Sonia Sotomayor from many prominent conservative commentators.

You essentially see Hispanics and “others” converging with African-Americans’ dim view of the Republicans. An interesting question here is whether this is a genuine meeting of the minds, or else just an artifact of the reality that black support for Republicans is pushing up against the zero bound, so that as a sinking tide drowns the GOP boat among all racial groups, the black/non-black gap necessarily gets smaller.

The Dying Goodwill Toward AT&T

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AT&T HQCongratulations! When Apple releases iPhone OS 3.0 next week, we'll finally be gaining the following features ...

Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)! ... unless you're on AT&T.

Tethering! ... unless you're on AT&T

A brand new 16GB iPhone 3G S for only $199 with a two-year contract! ... unless you're on AT&T and already own an iPhone 3G.

AT&T has long been the subject of grumbling from the community of US iPhone users who want to use their phones legitimately. Ever since the original release back in 2007, it feels like AT&T has been trying to play catch-up when it comes to service and tower availability. But, the release of the iPhone 3G S might be the straw that breaks the camel's back. I can walk down to my local AT&T store and pick up a cheap handset for less than $100 that will have MMS. AT&T knew this day was coming. The company may wail and gnash its teeth, complaining that it aren't ready for this, but it should be, especially since Boy Genius Report tells us that all AT&T needs to do is manually remove the opt-out code!

It was even apparent during the keynote yesterday that Apple sounds pretty disgusted with how far behind AT&T is dragging them. Notice the absence of any AT&T personnel on stage. Had AT&T been on the ball to begin with, it most likely would have taken center stage -- boasting about all the improvements that would garner shiny new services for iPhone users and more money for the corporate coffers. But it didn't, and the tension coming from Apple during the moments when MMS and Tethering were announced was pretty tangible. Apple had all of these features that people have been begging for ready to go, and now Cupertino is forced to wait for AT&T to finish twiddling its thumbs and do what it should have done two years ago. I wouldn't even be surprised if AT&T somehow found a way to block copy/paste!

A small footnote on Apple's iPhone page indicates that MMS support from AT&T will be coming later this summer. Another note on the 3.0 software pages says that tethering isn't available in the U.S. and some other countries, although Engadget cites AT&T sources who say it's coming -- there just isn't anything to announce yet.

Then there comes iPhone pricing. Those expecting a repeat of last summer's offer to replace their current iPhones with the latest model on the cheap are being sorely disappointed. You can read full details on that kerfuffle over at TUAW. Those who bought the first generation iPhone paid the full price right off the bat, but later buyers were able to get the iPhone 3G at a subsidized price. Like with any other subsidized phone with any other carrier, you'll have to pay a pretty hefty price for the privilege to upgrade before you're eligible. For me, that'll be in October 2010. By then, the iPhone 3G s4π will most likely be out. Still, people aren't happy with this one either.

The ramifications for AT&T will come when it sits down at the negotiation table with Apple to extend its current gig as exclusive carrier for the iPhone in the United States. Apple won't forget that AT&T didn't have key features in place when they needed to be there. If Verizon, T-Mobile, Sprint, or any other carrier can convince Apple that they would be ahead of the game while AT&T lags (and, believe me, it wouldn't be that hard of an argument to make), Apple will take its toys and go elsewhere. And loyal iPhone users would follow. I know I would.

Newspapers Gather In Secret (With An Antitrust Lawyer) To Collude Over Paywalls

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From Techdirt:

You may have noticed a bunch of stories recently about how newspapers should get an antitrust exemption to allow them to collude -- working together to all put in place a paywall at the same time. That hasn't gone anywhere, so apparently the newspapers decided to just go ahead and try to get together quietly themselves without letting anyone know. But, of course, you don't get a bunch of newspaper execs together without someone either noticing or leaking the news... so it got out. And then the newspapers admitted it with a carefully worded statement about how they got together "to discuss how best to support and preserve the traditions of newsgathering that will serve the American public." And, yes, they apparently had an antitrust lawyer or two involved.

In the end, though, it won't matter. If a bunch of newspapers decide to lock up their content, they will only be digging their own graves. Smart newspaper execs will stay away and get all of the traffic. The wire services that compete with the Associated Press (such as Reuters, and CNN's new wire service) would be well served to put out a press release now hyping up the fact that their content is free. Other, smaller providers of news should trumpet how much they want people to come to them for news instead of paying, and then watch in amusement as the newspapers (whether it's an antitrust violation or not) discover both their advertising and their subscription money disappear.

Whether it's antitrust or not, it sure looks like collective suicide.

The Very Daring Fireball RE: WWDC 2009 Announcements

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That John Gruber usually knows his stuff. I would pay attention if you care, at all, about what may or may not be announced at WWDC in about 3 weeks. The gist of his info is that the new iPhone will be faster in terms of processor & ram....and you will definitely be aware of it once you use the new phone. Also, 16/32 GB storage as well as a magnometer & video capabilites ala the Flip.

Woot.

Someone Who Is About To Be Fired At Warner Music Issues DMCA Takedown On Larry Lessig Presentation

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Last night, Larry Lessig tweeted that Warner Music had sent a takedown notice to YouTube over one of his presentations, claiming that it infringed their copyright. Lessig, of course, is one of the nation's leading legal scholars, particularly when it comes to fair use and electronic media. His presentations are filled with examples of companies like Warner sending bogus takedowns over fair-use inclusion of their copyrights in YouTube videos. And there's a burgeoning body of law that affords stiff penalties to companies that send these bogus takedowns.

If there were anyone out there to whom you would not want to send a random takedown notice for an online video, it would probably be Larry Lessig. Given that Lessig has become the public face for those who feel that copyright has been stretched too far, as well as being a founder of Stanford's Fair Use Project, and who's written multiple books on these issues, you would think (just maybe) that any copyright holder would at least think twice before sending a DMCA takedown on a Larry Lessig presentation.

Apparently, you'd be wrong.

Lessig, of course, is a lawyer, and a big supporter of fair use, so it's no surprise that he's also said he's going to be fighting this.

The thing that I can't understand is who at Warner Music would decide this was a good idea? We've seen Warner make a number of highly questionable moves over the past six months, but this may be the most incomprehensible. Warner Music may claim it was an accident or that it didn't mean to send the takedown, but that's hard to fathom as well. The DMCA rules are pretty clear, that the filer needs to clearly own the content, and previously lawsuits have said they need to take fair use into account. I'm going to make a BIG bowl of popcorn to watch as Warner Music gets pwned.

Update: Some people have been asking which Lessig presentation was taken down. It's been reposted elsewhere, so you can check it out, and then explain how Warner Music has any claim to a takedown.