Tropical Storm Ernesto … guess where its headed…
Satellite imagery backed up by reports from the Hurricane Hunters continues to indicate Tropical Storm Ernesto's slowly but steadily improving organization. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the southern coast of Haiti and a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the island of Jamaica. A hurricane watch may soon be issued for the Cayman Islands. Ernesto is moving west-northwest through the central Caribbean, and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. An upper low out ahead of the storm will cause some west-southwesterly shear along the storms path over the next 1 to 2 days, which would prevent any rapid strengthening. Ernesto's strongest winds are on the northern side of its circulation and this should continue for the next few days as well. Given this, the current forecast calls for the bulk of the squally weather to remain south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but a few outer bands could generate some heavier downpours and gusty conditions even in these areas starting today. Heavy squalls and gusty winds would then begin to impact parts of Haiti and Jamaica by Sunday and linger into Monday. The bothersome shear is forecast to weaken as the tropical storm moves beyond Jamaica and across the northwest Caribbean Monday and very early Tuesday, most likely allowing Ernesto to become the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. Current forecasts indicate that Ernesto will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane by Tuesday. For now, interests along the Gulf Coast states should simply monitor and be aware of the system. Stay tuned to The Weather Channel's Hurricane Central for the latest updates.
