Third undersea cable severed in Mideast
As quoted from ZDNet's Richard Stiennon:
I am not going to parrot the inevitable sky is falling warnings that are sure to come from pundits everywhere regarding the just heard news that a third undersea cable in the Mideast has been cut. Coincidence or well timed targeted attack? will be the question of the day. Most likely it is coincidence. Anchors have an uncanny way of finding cables just as backhoes are the bane of terrestrial fiber.
But, I would like to disagree with Eric Schoonover, a senior analyst with TeleGeography. According to this article:
Schoonover said a similar Internet problem could not happen in the United States.
“We have all the content here,” he said. “It’s not going to be felt other than we won’t get the BBC.”
Nice attempt at calming the waters but network issues have a way of cascading. What if US oil and gas companies that have operations in the Mideast put some back up services there? What if another coincidence shuts down a data center in the US and the backups cannot occur in time because of unreachable storage devices? What about all the “Business Process Outsourcing” handled in India? Try telling Dell, or Microsoft, both companies that rely on Indian support services, that “most of our content is here”.
The US has had its own problems. Backhoes have taken out big chunks of the Internet. Routing flaps, bad route announcements, attacks on Cisco vulnerabilities could all impair our beloved Internet.
It’s one ‘Net now. Anyone relying on the Internet for their business has to be concerned about its inherent vulnerability and prepare for it as best they may.
Unmovable Object vs Unstoppable Force
by DHinMI
Who's favored in an election, the long-time leader or the fast-closing challenger? If the long-time leader is an incumbent, usually you figure the challenger has a solid chance to win. How might this pattern play out in the Democratic primary?
Hillary Clinton has been ahead in the national polls since the start of the campaign. But all the momentum, both long term and in the last few weeks appears to be with Barack Obama. In mid-October, the Pollster.com average of national polls had Clinton and Obama separated by 23 points, 46-23. Today the difference is down to 43/36, and Obama's ascent has been significant.
Look at the two tracking polls listed in Devilstower's polling roundup. A tracking poll is a rolling three day sample. You try to get approximately 400 respondents per night. Each day you add in the previous night's results and drop out the oldest results. Rasmussen's numbers have bounced around a bit in the last 10 days, but their latest 3 day average has the gap between Clinton and Obama at 7 points, and that's with only one night's sample without Edwards in the race. While one should not put too much stock in one night's data in a rolling three-day tracking poll, last night Rasmussen's single-night sample had Obama and Clinton "essentially even." And a look at the Gallup numbers from 6 days ago, 3 days ago and today show Clinton's margin over Obama shrinking from 16 point to 11 points to 4 points.
In elections with an incumbent, it's generally thought that if the challenger is close and gaining on the incumbent in to the final days of a campaign, then the challenger has the momentum and is the odd-on favorite to win. Technically there is no incumbent and no challenger in this race. But vice-presidents are often thought of as de facto incumbents in a Presidential primary.
While she's not a vice-president, in some ways Hillary Clinton is like a sitting vice-president running for the nomination. The comparison doesn't work perfectly here, as elections with a sitting vice-president are viewed in part as a referendum on the performance of the sitting president, and Bill Clinton has been out of office for 8 years, and the sour mood of the country isn't blamed on Bill Clinton. (Well, at least outside the pages of the American Spectator and in the bloviations of Rush Limbaugh.) But as the known commodity running against the fresh face, the alternative to what's already known--and for most casual political observers, Barack Obama is just now becoming familiar to them--Hillary Clinton is similar to an incumbent or a vice-president running for presidential nomination.
So, if we accept the flawed but still probably useful model of Hillary Clinton as the incumbent, Obama's momentum probably indicates that Tuesday's primaries and caucuses should be much closer than one would expect based on the prevailing conventional wisdom throughout most of this nominating campaign.
Hillary Clinton is still polling ahead of Barack Obama in most states. But with Obama's momentum and the narrow margins in the polls nationally and in several key states like California, it's not unreasonable to think that Barack Obama could come out ahead on Tuesday night.
Post courtesy of DHinMI from DailyKOS.
Microsoft Makes Unsolicited Hostile Bid to Buy Yahoo
It’s been rumored for a long time, but now it’s reality.
Microsoft has made an unsolicited $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo. The bid, which would consist of cash and Microsoft stock, values Yahoo shares at $31 a share, a 62% premium on Thursdays closing price.
Michael Arrington, of Techcrunch, stated during his appearance on Fox Business this week that Yahoo could face a takeover by Microsoft as part of an ad play, and he was right. Microsoft cites online advertising as being one of the key benefits of the acquisition, saying that “resulting benefits of scale along with the associated capital costs for advertising platform providers make this a time of industry consolidation and convergence. Today this market is increasingly dominated by one player. Together, Microsoft and Yahoo! can offer a competitive choice while better fulfilling the needs of customers and partners.”
The emphasis is mine but it’s another key point: Microsoft + Yahoo = a stronger competitor to the Google borg.
Microsoft has previously shown an interest in Yahoo, with reports in May 2007 saying that Microsoft had approached Yahoo about a friendly takeover.
As follows, the letter from Microsoft to the Yahoo board, there’s also a conference call at 8:30am EST where we hope to get more details.
January 31, 2008
Board of Directors
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089
Attention: Roy Bostock, Chairman
Attention: Jerry Yang, Chief Executive OfficerDear Members of the Board:
I am writing on behalf of the Board of Directors of Microsoft to make a proposal for a business combination of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Under our proposal, Microsoft would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Yahoo! common stock for per share consideration of $31 based on Microsoft’s closing share price on January 31, 2008, payable in the form of $31 in cash or 0.9509 of a share of Microsoft common stock. Microsoft would provide each Yahoo! shareholder with the ability to choose whether to receive the consideration in cash or Microsoft common stock, subject to pro-ration so that in the aggregate one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be exchanged for shares of Microsoft common stock and one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be converted into the right to receive cash. Our proposal is not subject to any financing condition.
Our proposal represents a 62% premium above the closing price of Yahoo! common stock of $19.18 on January 31, 2008. The implied premium for the operating assets of the company clearly is considerably greater when adjusted for the minority, non-controlled assets and cash. By whatever financial measure you use - EBITDA, free cash flow, operating cash flow, net income, or analyst target prices - this proposal represents a compelling value realization event for your shareholders.
We believe that Microsoft common stock represents a very attractive investment opportunity for Yahoo!’s shareholders. Microsoft has generated revenue growth of 15%, earnings growth of 26%, and a return on equity of 35% on average for the last three years. Microsoft’s share price has generated shareholder returns of 8% during the last one year period and 28% during the last three year period, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. It is our view that Microsoft has significant potential upside given the continued solid growth in our core businesses, the recent launch of Windows Vista, and other strategic initiatives.
Microsoft’s consistent belief has been that the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! clearly represents the best way to deliver maximum value to our respective shareholders, as well as create a more efficient and competitive company that would provide greater value and service to our customers. In late 2006 and early 2007, we jointly explored a broad range of ways in which our two companies might work together. These discussions were based on a vision that the online businesses of Microsoft and Yahoo! should be aligned in some way to create a more effective competitor in the online marketplace. We discussed a number of alternatives ranging from commercial partnerships to a merger proposal, which you rejected. While a commercial partnership may have made sense at one time, Microsoft believes that the only alternative now is the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! that we are proposing.
In February 2007, I received a letter from your Chairman indicating the view of the Yahoo! Board that “now is not the right time from the perspective of our shareholders to enter into discussions regarding an acquisition transaction.” According to that letter, the principal reason for this view was the Yahoo! Board’s confidence in the “potential upside” if management successfully executed on a reformulated strategy based on certain operational initiatives, such as Project Panama, and a significant organizational realignment. A year has gone by, and the competitive situation has not improved.
While online advertising growth continues, there are significant benefits of scale in advertising platform economics, in capital costs for search index build-out, and in research and development, making this a time of industry consolidation and convergence. Today, the market is increasingly dominated by one player who is consolidating its dominance through acquisition. Together, Microsoft and Yahoo! can offer a credible alternative for consumers, advertisers, and publishers. Synergies of this combination fall into four areas:
Scale economics: This combination enables synergies related to scale economics of the advertising platform where today there is only one competitor at scale. This includes synergies across both search and non-search related advertising that will strengthen the value proposition to both advertisers and publishers. Additionally, the combination allows us to consolidate capital spending.
Expanded R&D capacity: The combined talent of our engineering resources can be focused on R&D priorities such as a single search index and single advertising platform. Together we can unleash new levels of innovation, delivering enhanced user experiences, breakthroughs in search, and new advertising platform capabilities. Many of these breakthroughs are a function of an engineering scale that today neither of our companies has on its own.
Operational efficiencies: Eliminating redundant infrastructure and duplicative operating costs will improve the financial performance of the combined entity.
Emerging user experiences: Our combined ability to focus engineering resources that drive innovation in emerging scenarios such as video, mobile services, online commerce, social media, and social platforms is greatly enhanced.
We would value the opportunity to further discuss with you how to optimize the integration of our respective businesses to create a leading global technology company with exceptional display and search advertising capabilities. You should also be aware that we intend to offer significant retention packages to your engineers, key leaders and employees across all disciplines.
We have dedicated considerable time and resources to an analysis of a potential transaction and are confident that the combination will receive all necessary regulatory approvals. We look forward to discussing this with you, and both our internal legal team and outside counsel are available to meet with your counsel at their earliest convenience.
Our proposal is subject to the negotiation of a definitive merger agreement and our having the opportunity to conduct certain limited and confirmatory due diligence. In addition, because a portion of the aggregate merger consideration would consist of Microsoft common stock, we would provide Yahoo! the opportunity to conduct appropriate limited due diligence with respect to Microsoft. We are prepared to deliver a draft merger agreement to you and begin discussions immediately.
In light of the significance of this proposal to your shareholders and ours, as well as the potential for selective disclosures, our intention is to publicly release the text of this letter tomorrow morning.
Due to the importance of these discussions and the value represented by our proposal, we expect the Yahoo! Board to engage in a full review of our proposal. My leadership team and I would be happy to make ourselves available to meet with you and your Board at your earliest convenience. Depending on the nature of your response, Microsoft reserves the right to pursue all necessary steps to ensure that Yahoo!’s shareholders are provided with the opportunity to realize the value inherent in our proposal.
We believe this proposal represents a unique opportunity to create significant value for Yahoo!’s shareholders and employees, and the combined company will be better positioned to provide an enhanced value proposition to users and advertisers. We hope that you and your Board share our enthusiasm, and we look forward to a prompt and favorable reply.
Sincerely yours,
/s/ Steven A. Ballmer
Steven A. Ballmer
Chief Executive Officer
Microsoft Corporation
Additionally, Microsoft's $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo may end up putting other companies in play. High on the list of potential targets is AOL, which is the middle of a turnaround effort by its parent company, Time Warner.
AOL has long been the subject of takeover speculation, but that chatter is bound to become deafening with Friday's move by Microsoft.
Shares of Time Warner were up as much as 7 percent in pre-market trading, suggesting that investors may see AOL a much more enticing prize now.
Google may be among those who take a fresh look at AOL, whose businesses include an advertising platform as well as an Internet service and a Web site. Google already owns 5 percent of AOL, and it may feel compelled to make a dramatic move now that two rivals, Yahoo and Microsoft, may be joining forces.
Time Stops at Grand Central
In this video clip, the Improv Everywhere group brings 207 apparently normal people into Grand Central Station, whereupon they all freeze, at exactly the same instant, for five minutes, standing stock still, as though they were caught in some kind of time-loop. Around them, the Grand Central crowd looks on in wonderment, trying to figure out what's going on -- a little scared, but delighted too. When the frozen hundreds all begin to move again at the same instant, the crowd gives them a standing ovation.
We got great reactions from the folks who encountered us. Strangers started talking to each other, trying to figure out what was going on. With wireless microphones hidden in our shirts, a few agents and I struck up conversations with folks. I convinced one guy to grab a cell phone from a frozen woman's hand. He did it, laughing uncontrollably as he gently put it back in her hand. My favorite reaction was from a female cop who witnessed the whole thing from behind her NYPD recruitment booth: Me: Do you know what that was?
Cop: I have no idea! That is the craziest shit I've ever seen in my life, AND I'M A COP!
Me: Ha. Yeah, it was weird.
Cop: You wanna sign up to be in the NYPD?
Me: No thanks.
Why I Left Print Media for Digital
Jennifer Woodard Maderazo wrote a piece for Mediashift about the oft discussed topic of the print to digital shift that many have opined about for years. She solicited comments prior to this piece via Twitter and graciously included her questions & my answers as a section of her article.
You Shift, I Shift, Others Don’t
Blogger and web designer Joel Housman told me that — like my experience with PopPhoto — the outdated information is what got him to switch from print to digital. An avid magazine subscriber, Housman dumped Wired, Mac Addict, Maximum PC, Macworld and other print titles for their online equivalents and never looked back. Housman put it this way: “I found that ALL of their content can be had online for months before the print edition gets to me. Why waste the paper? Why read two-month-old news? I stay way more on top of things by scanning the 250+ RSS feeds I watch during the day.”
He says that there are no cons to the switch.
Hey look mom. Thats me! Read the entire article here.