Oh for crying out loud….

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Ernesto Track 2

Ernesto Strike 2

Tropical Depression Ernesto off the Florida coast near Melbourne has now regained Tropical Storm Strength quickly over the very warm water of the Atlantic. Heavy rainfall continues to be the main concern from Ernesto. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible across central to northern Florida through the overnight hours. Meanwhile a cold front is producting 2 to 5 inches of rainfall to the north over North Carolina. This is the general direction of Ernesto with a huge concern now for flooding in eastern North Carolina into Virginia as Ernesto plows up the coast.

The center of now Tropical Storm Ernesto has emerged over the warm waters of the Atlantic. It is forecast to make another landfall just north of Charleston, South Carolina on Thursday during the late afternoon hours. Yet again, locally flooding rains will be the main threat from Ernesto although it will also kick up the waves along the coasts of South and North Carolina; rising between 15 to 25 feet. Some beach erosion is possible all the way to southeast Virgina by Thursday night.

All hurricane watches have been dropped however tropical storm warnings remain posted from the northern half of the east coast of Florida northward to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

Looking ahead to the latter half of the week, heavy rain may produce flooding across parts of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast (including portions of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland) as remnants of Ernesto work their way northward and interact with a stationary boundary draped across the region. This heavy rainfall will be in tandem with the busy travels of the Labor Day holiday. Be ready to deal with slow air travel and surface travel in the region. Keep it here at weather.com and The Weather Channel for updates and the forecast as we approach the holiday weekend.

Emmys host Conan O’Brien actually funny!

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Click here to watch the opening sequence.

Later in the show the Daily Show was nominated in 2 categories and the Colbert Report in 3. Jon Stewart won in both of his categories (beating the Colbert report in both) but he mentioned the Colbert people on stage during both acceptance speeches, practically implying in the first one that he thought the academy had given the award to the wrong person(as he nodded in the direction of Colbert). Later on Colbert lost to Barry Mannalow in his category(some obscure performing category). Because of this....when Stewart & Colbert got up to present a later award comedic gold happened:

Click here to watch.

What a Difference a Day Makes

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This post is courtesy of DailyKOS by SusanG.

This morning, on Fox News, Don Powell, federal coordinator of Gulf Coast Rebuilding, had this to say about the levee situation in New Orleans as Ernesto nears:

...There is a widespread coordination, and I think we're ready. There's no question in my mind, we're ready.... There's been an extraordinary amount of effort by the Corps of Engineers on restoring and repairing the levees, and I believe that the levees are ready for the hurricane season.

But just yesterday, AP had this to report from Lt. Gen. Carl Strock of the Army Corps of Engineers:
Corps not promising levees would holdNEW ORLEANS -- Despite aggressive efforts to repair the New Orleans levee system, it isn't clear whether it would withstand a hurricane with heavy storm surge this year, the head of the Army Corps of Engineers conceded Saturday.

..."To pinpoint it to one thing and say 'yes' or 'no' is very difficult," Strock said.


So there you have it: You can choose to put your trust in a political appointee of Bush's, spinning on a Fox News Sunday show who has "no question" in his mind that the levees will hold - and whose previous experience in disaster management is heading the FDIC - or you can go with the judicious, cautioned assessment of the head of the Army Corps of Engineers.

Either someone was very, very busy overnight in levee restructuring or we're once again being subjected to gut-feeling, faith-based happy talk.

Ernesto is now a Hurricane

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As of 5:00 am this morning....

Hurricane Hunter Aircraft recently found increased winds and a lower pressure early this morning near the center of Ernesto. As a result Ernesto was upgraded to Hurricane status, making this the first Hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Season. As of 5am, maximum winds have increased to 75 mph with higher gusts, which makes Ernesto a category one hurricane. Hurricane warnings have been issued for southern coast of Haiti. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch continues in effect for Jamaica and a hurricane watch is in effect for eastern Cuba and Cayman Islands. Environmental conditions continue to become more favorable for continued development. An upper low to the west of Ernesto is moving west, decreasing the shear to the west of the storm. This decrease in shear this morning has allowed storm to intensify, as it continues to move west-northwest. Haiti and Dominican Republic will experience very heavy squalls, gusty winds, flash flooding and increasing rough seas today, with these conditions also affecting Jamaica and southeast Cuba by tonight. Latest forecast information indicates that a trough building across the central United States will be a bit stronger and create steering wind currents that may pull Ernesto on a more northerly track. Due to this, areas along the eastern Gulf of Mexico, particularly Florida, should be on the alert. Ernesto may begin to influence the Florida Keys by early Tuesday, and perhaps parts of the Gulf Coast or Florida my Midweek.

Ernesto's cloud pattern is still a bit ragged-looking but there are some banding features over the eastern semicircle...and cirrus outflow is expanding over the western part of the circulation. The last aircraft-extrapolated central pressure was 997 mb...suggesting that there has been little or no strengthening over the past several hours. With the upper-level cyclone shifting westward toward Yucatan...the shear over Ernesto is quickly diminishing. Thus the primary consideration in the intensity forecast over the next couple of days will be how much the tropical cyclone interacts with land. On the current forecast track...the center would be over Cuba from hour 24 to 48 hours. This should cause some weakening and the official wind speed forecast follows the decay SHIPS model rather closely. However...after the center moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...significant restrengthening is possible. It should be noted that the official forecast intensity at 96 hours assumes some weakening due to interaction with land. However....Ernesto could approach category 3 status prior to the projected landfall in western Florida.

Tropical Storm Ernesto … guess where its headed…

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Ernesto Track 1

Ernesto Strike 1

Satellite imagery backed up by reports from the Hurricane Hunters continues to indicate Tropical Storm Ernesto's slowly but steadily improving organization. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the southern coast of Haiti and a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the island of Jamaica. A hurricane watch may soon be issued for the Cayman Islands. Ernesto is moving west-northwest through the central Caribbean, and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. An upper low out ahead of the storm will cause some west-southwesterly shear along the storms path over the next 1 to 2 days, which would prevent any rapid strengthening. Ernesto's strongest winds are on the northern side of its circulation and this should continue for the next few days as well. Given this, the current forecast calls for the bulk of the squally weather to remain south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but a few outer bands could generate some heavier downpours and gusty conditions even in these areas starting today. Heavy squalls and gusty winds would then begin to impact parts of Haiti and Jamaica by Sunday and linger into Monday. The bothersome shear is forecast to weaken as the tropical storm moves beyond Jamaica and across the northwest Caribbean Monday and very early Tuesday, most likely allowing Ernesto to become the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. Current forecasts indicate that Ernesto will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane by Tuesday. For now, interests along the Gulf Coast states should simply monitor and be aware of the system. Stay tuned to The Weather Channel's Hurricane Central for the latest updates.