IT Director for a non-profit in Washington, DC. Man About Internet.
Yesterday, I wrote "Crazy Prediction: Verizon iPhone Will Dramatically Hurt Android." I largely commented on two articles written by Marco Arment and Watts Martin. Marco has written a follow-up article today called "Too Much Hardware Choice". If this topic interests you, then you need to read his follow-up.
Again, I think Marco is 100% correct.
This may seem like a crazy prediction given various Android phones' recent successes, but I think the Verizon iPhone is going to drastically impact sales of Android. Outside of the tech community consumers have no concept of open source or understand the difference between a Droid and a Samsung Galaxy S. Many would have no idea those two handsets both run Android. Two recent articles did an excellent job of echoing various thoughts that I've had in the back of my mind for some time on this topic. Watts Martin wrote "Who's Afraid of the Verizon iPhone?" and Marco Arment wrote an untitled followup to Martin's article.
Do be clear, when I refer to "people who buy X" in this article, I'm talking about the mainstream. I'm not talking about the tech community. There are Google/Open Source fanatics out there who buy Android phones to jailbreak/hack them into becoming an IR remote to control their media center PC and bittorrent client to get last night's episode of Furturama. I'm not talking about those users. I'm talking about your non-tech savvy friend who is your same age and wants a smartphone but doesn't know much about them.
Before reading any further, please go read those articles first. Okay, done? Good.
I want to point out these three paragraphs from Watts Martin's article:
The theory is this. There’s a subset of tech-savvy consumers who buy Android phones because (a) they want to run Android specifically as they think it’s really the best mobile operating system for their needs, or (b) they see it as a political/philosophical statement (pro-“open,” or simply anti-Apple). Here in Silicon Valley or in other nerd-o-centric places, you’re going to find a disproportionate number of people carrying Droids and Galaxies and the like who fall into these groups.
But my hunch is that most people don’t care much about the operating system on their phone. They make their purchase based on branding, availability, quality perception, availability, price, availability, and did I mention availability? When many consumers want to get a new smartphone, or move from their old feature phone to their first smartphone, they go to their carrier’s store, and then they apply their other criteria: what phones in this room with me right now are ones that I’ve heard good things about, that I like the looks of, and that I can afford?
Granted, some people may actually choose their carrier based on their desired phone—I switched from T-Mobile when the iPhone came out. But that’s also the rub. I’ve heard of many people, both nerds like me and non-nerds, who switched to AT&T for the iPhone. But how many people switched to Verizon for the Droid? I can think of some who switched to an Android phone on Verizon or T-Mobile either as a political/anti-Apple statement or to get away from AT&T—but that’s not the same. I’m sure they’re out there, but without exception the people I know who own Android phones either fall into one of the two groups I outlined above, or bought them because they were already on a non-AT&T carrier and couldn’t or wouldn’t switch.
In Marco Arment's response to Watts Martin, he made some excellent points. These points align more closely with what I think the truth is: people don't buy Android phones because they like Android phones. People buy Android phones because they're the most iPhone-like phones available on Verzion...until now.
Marco wrote:
Sure, Android has moved a lot of volume. But the platform’s various devices seem to lack most of the passionate customer demand that iPhones have always had. Nobody’s lining up the night before to buy them. Even the gadget blogs have a hard time feigning enthusiasm for this week’s hot Android phone because they still haven’t taken the shrinkwrap off of last week’s.
Whenever I’ve overheard conversations about smartphones in real life, by “normal people” (not geeks like us), it has always been clear that the true battle happening in the U.S. phone market wasn’t iPhone versus Android, but iPhone versus Verizon.
The decision that people were discussing wasn’t “Do I get an iPhone or an Android whatever?”
It was always “Do I get an iPhone or do I stay on Verizon?”
I get the feeling that very few people except anti-Apple geeks really care about Android itself. The buying decision for most seemed to be, “I’m on Verizon and don’t want to switch, so which of the phones in the Verizon store looks best? They say this one is just as good as an iPhone. I guess I’ll get that.”
My sentiments exactly. Marco hit this one out of the park. I'm sure I'll be ridiculed by Android fans and anti-Apple radicals, but I'm sticking to my guns. I think that the release of the iPhone on Verzion, and perhaps now Sprint too(?) is going to drastically curb the growth of Android in 2011 or at least put a significant dent in it now that users can buy an iPhone on whatever carrier they choose.
I'll let Marco sum up:
But I suspect that the media’s conversation about Android versus iPhone is going to be very different in a year. Even moreso in two years, the duration of the average Verizon contract. And it’s not looking great for Android.
The iPhone is going to gain a lot of U.S. marketshare by being on Verizon, and it’s going to come significantly at Android’s expense. (BlackBerry will lose some of their Verizon customers to iPhone, too, but I bet Android will lose proportionally much more.)
At an event in New York City today which kicked off at 11 am EST, executives from Verizon took stage and announced, before the tech/apple community press, that they will begin selling a CDMA variant of the iPhone 4.
Many press were invited to this event. The invites made the news as they were sent out last Thursday. MG Siegler of Techcrunch even noted that Jon Oliver from the daily show was there. Press in attendance reported that the voice-over announcer for the event was John Hodgman of Daily Show fame (and PC Guy from the Apple commercials). Andy Ihnatko reported that, at one point, John Oliver stood up and screamed "Fuck yeah!" to the stage.
As reported by Engadget:
10:56AM Whoa. John Oliver just screamed "F*ck yeah! Thank you!" -- Apparently he's doing a bit. Wait, he's doing it again. "Oh thank god! Thank you!" Ha!
COO of Apple, Tim Cook, too the stage with Verizon executive Lowell Macadam, and jointly announced the iPhone 4 coming to Verizon. The phone will be available in 16GB models for $199.99, and $299.99 for 32 GB devices (both with a 2 year contract). Unlike AT&T, there will also be a Wi-Fi hotspot feature where you can connect up to 5 devices. The device will go on sale February 10, but existing Verizon customers will be able to pre-order starting February 3.
On notable drawback is one that many people have always stated is true with CDMA devices. When you receive a phone call, your data will drop. Tim Cook ood questions from the press in regards to why they didn't release the phone as an LTE phone. Cook said, "Two reasons -- the first gen LTW chipsets force design changes we wouldn't make. And Verizon customers told us they want the iPhone now. I can't tell you the number of times we've been asked 'when will it work on Verizon'". He did say the CDMA phone was non-exclusive to Verizon. Hmm..Sprint maybe in the future too?
One other notable feature: No pre-installed Verizon "crapps" to muck up your phone. This phone will be just like an AT&T phone, but on Verizon (with the slight CDMA drawback & wifi hotspot bonus).
It only took 3.5 years, but it's finally here.
I've decided to publish my past year's statistics for public consumption. Note that my site doesn't get a ton of traffic. A few things I took note of:
On April 28, 2008, Dan Benjamin & John Gruber recorded Episode 20 of The Talk Show (the old one) entitled "RE: The Keyboard Episode". First, go listen to that. It will take you 1:02:02 min. Go ahead. I'll wait.
Okay, done now? Good. I was intrigued. Over the past four years I had begun appreciating quality technology hardware. I was beyond the phase in my life of wanting to tinker with hardware and experiment. I was tired of hardware failing on me, being unreliable and having to maintain it. I switched to Apple and have loved their products since fall '06. Their peripherals were another story
I despise Apple Mice and can barely tolerate their keyboards. I've used Logitech Mice for well on 8 years or so and feel they make the best mice in the world. My current favorite is my G500. Their keyboards, however, I feel are not of the same quality. Up until a few days ago I was using a Microsoft Natural ergonomic keyboard. I'd been using this for years. It was just 'okay'. Nothing spectacular but I couldn't really find an alternative that I felt was far superior.
This has been nagging me ever since I listened to that episode of the old Talk Show from April 2008. For Christmas this year I asked my lovely wife to get me a Matias Tactile Pro 3 Keyboard because it was supposed to be a modern version of the famous Apple IIe keyboard that Gruber spoke of from that podcast episode. And boy, let me tell you...
This thing is amazing. Please see my Twitter timeline from yesterday evening:
Link to the audio recording contained within this tweet & the Amazon link.
This keyboard feels nice to type on. Each key press gives this very satisfyingly resonating click that your fingers get used to. It is substantial. I'm back at work in my office this morning typing on an old keyboard (Apple style circa 2005) and this thing feels like a toy compared to The Beast I have at home on my desk.
Would it be too over the top to carry my own keyboard into work each day in my messenger bag? That's not weird, right? Right guys? Anyone?
This video has been making its rounds on Twitter and various blogs this morning. I first saw it over on my wife's website, so I wanted to make sure I give her credit for discovery.
To quote John Gruber, "These guys must have missed the memo that the iPad was for consumption only and not creativity.
So many of my readers, family, and friends come to me around the holidays, and throughout the year, asking for tech gift buying advice. Starting in 2009 I simply compiled a list of various tech gadgets that I could think might be interesting to people and wrote a paragraph or two about each of them.
I've now completed my 2010 Holiday Tech Gift Recommendation List and linked to it in the top navigation above. As stated on the page, I've owned or currently own all of these items with a few exceptions. In the case of the exceptions, they are items that I've used before extensively or want for myself. You can't go wrong by buying any of these items for yourself or a friend/loved one.