For McCain, It’s All About Ohio

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All this hand-wringing over the national poll numbers is misplaced. Watch the swing state numbers, and especially, watch Ohio.

via 538.com

Like every other junkie, I've been checking 538 every day, but I noticed something for the first time yesterday: based on their models, McSame has less than a 1% chance of winning the election without winning Ohio.

That's right -- it's practically impossible for McSame to lose Ohio and win the election.

Why?

The simple fact is, there's just not that many big red states. If you put Ohio in the blue column, McSame has to pull an upset in Michigan, where he currently trails by 7 while simultaneously holding Obama off in Virginia (where he's down 1), Nevada (up 2), Montana (down 3) and Colorado (down 2).

Failing that, he'd have to cobble together a whole series of upsets, like New Mexico (where he's down 5), Minnesota (down 7) and Iowa (down 5). But even then, that would also mean that McSame would have to win just about every state where Obama's pushing him -- states like Colorado, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

There's a handy electoral college map simulator here. See for yourself.

The whole thing's going to come down to Ohio, again. It's a big union state that gave Bush the election by about 100,000 votes in 2004. Rove's secret weapon that year was a same-sex marriage ban initiative which helped drive social conservative turnout, and tipped the scales to Bush and the GOP.

Ohio had serious buyer's remorse, because in 2006, they promptly kicked out every major Republican office holder in the state and elected a Democratic governor and senator.

Latest polls show Obama with a 2-point lead. If you live in Ohio, you know what to do.

Article courtesy of FireDogLake.

State of the Race - Electoral Math - 8/14/08

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The 8/1 edition of this feature is here, when the tally was Obama 336, McCain 202. Remember, I award states to whoever leads in the Pollster.com polling aggregates.

For this edition, Obama has actually slipped a bit and now wins Obama 312, McCain 226.

Compared to two weeks ago, Obama has lost his razor thin lead in Florida, though McCain's 1.6-point lead isn't exactly commanding. The state is effectively deadlocked. In Obama's favor, Alaska is now a narrow Obama lead. Like Montana, it's hard to believe that Alaska would sport even a temporary Obama lead, but it's that kind of year. Obama truly is outperforming past tickets in the West. It's east of the Mississippi were things tighten up most.

Now let's look at the map with competitive states yellowed out:

I consider a state "competitive" if it's within single digits in the polling, and thus far, about half the states remain competitive. But if you tally up the EVs, you see that Obama is sitting in much more solid ground.

Two weeks ago, Obama had 210 electoral votes in his safe column, essentially his base states, compared to 72 EVs for McCain. . This week, it's Obama 200, McCain 82. Oregon, which has been giving Obama a roughly 10-point lead, has tightened up slightly, given him a 7-point lead. And Delaware should've been in yellow all along, since an old SUSA poll in February gave Obama a 9-point lead. It's not really a competitive state, but by the rules of this exercise, I must include it.

Bottom line, Obama has 200 solid EVs out of the 270 electoral votes he needs, while McCain needs 188 of the remaining 253 EVs, or a whopping 74 percent of them, to win the election.

Why oh why isn't Obama doing better! This is all great news for McCain.

One more exercise -- I tightened the "swing state" screen to states where the margins are closer than five points:

This map gives us Obama 264, McCain 154. That leaves 120 EVs up for grabs, of which McCain must win 97 percent to win the election. Al Obama has to do is pick up six more EVs from those yellow states. Nevada has five, Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota each have three, the rest of those yellow states would single-handedly push Obama over the top.

I don't know how the news for Obama can get any worse than this...

Reposted from DailyKOS.

John McCain & Press Access

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Article courtesy of DailyKOS.

There's just 84 days until the election, but more and more, John McCain's campaign is doing everything they can to shield their candidate from the press. Apparently fed up with foreign policy blunder, after blunder, after blunder, and mixed messages on exactly who speaks for John McCain, along with his habit of being known:

...to sign off on big campaign decisions and then to march off his own reservation.

...the McCain campaign decided to clamp down. After all, they don't want McCain ruining another great GOP tire gauge give-away. So they cut off access to the traveling press, and now are trying:
...to cut down on Mr. McCain’s use of his cellphone and limit the people who have regular access to Mr. McCain in an effort to keep him more focused, advisers said.

Yes, this wannabe leader of the free world is on friend and phone restriction so he doesn't get distracted. But you can't really blame the campaign when McCain continues to serve up gems like this:
I think the thing that helps me, I probably -- I don't know if you like this much detail -- if I can sleep in to about 7:30 or 8, then it really helps me. When I get up real early, like 5:30 or 6, then, you know, you don't go to bed until 10, 10:30 or 11 -- it seems to help me to get up a little later in the morning. [...]

I just get a little more tired. Never cranky, or testy. I just think I do better. I kinda can tell, and I think [my staff] can tell you, if I put in three or four 18-hour, 20-hour days in a row, then I'm not sharp. It's just a fact. I can be sharp if I get a little more rest.


Yes, there's an image you want to project...a president who won't be too sharp when that 3:00 a.m. call comes, and won't be up to speed without a solid eight hours.

So, it looks like the McCain campaign's strategy for the duration is going to be to try and keep screw-ups to a minimum and the press at a distance. Which is quite a change from the vow McCain made about press access in the days after he was implicated in the Keating Five scandal:

I would henceforth accept every single request for an interview from any source, prominent or obscure, and answer every question as completely and straightforwardly as I could...It is a public relations strategy that I have followed to this day, and while it has gotten me in trouble from time to time, it has on the whole served both my interest and that of the public well. [Worth Fighting For - page 192]

Apparently John McCain has decided that public interest is going to have to take a back seat to self interest.

McCain Calls For Investigation Of “Train Wreck” He And His Lobbyist Campaign Manager Created In Ohio

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As Jane mentioned yesterday, back in 2003, McSame helped DHL screw the people of Ohio out of thousands of jobs. Now that's he facing the political backlash campaigning in Ohio, he's shocked, shocked -- and wants to get to the bottom of it.


Sen. John McCain promised Thursday to call for a congressional hearing and Justice Department review into the potential loss of some 8,000 jobs in this Ohio town as his presidential campaign once again faced uncomfortable questions about its ties to Washington lobbyists.


Why have a hearing? He can just ask his buddy Rick, who got rich in the deal, what went down. In the meantime, McSame heard plenty from this angry Ohioan.

Finally given a chance to address Sen. John McCain, Mary Houghtaling choked up Thursday and began to cry.

Wiping away her tears, she told the presumptive Republican presidential nominee how a controversial corporate deal he backed in 2003 as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee -- the sale of Airborne Express cargo service to a German conglomerate that owns DHL and the subsequent expansion of the air freight hub here -- had gone horribly wrong.

"Never before have so many people been abandoned at once," said Houghtaling, who runs a local hospice. "It is inconceivable to think about losing 10,000 jobs in the first wave, and the estimates run in the 30,000 range as the wave continues."


McSame's McLame response?

"I can't assure you that this train wreck isn't going to happen, but I will do everything in my power to avert it," McCain told two dozen elected officials and community leaders during a 45-minute meeting on the campus of Wilmington College.


I'm sure he'll get right on that.

Auto Makers Deflate McCain’s Ignorant Hot Air On Value Of Proper Tire Inflation

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In a series of public events today, John McCain has ramped up his disingenuous attack on the impact proper tire inflation can have in saving energy. At a rally in South Dakota, a hyper McCain yelled to the crowd: “My opponent doesn’t want to drill. He doesn’t want nuclear power. He wants you to inflate your tires.” Earlier in the day, he said: “We’re not going to achieve energy independence by inflating our tires.”

Of course, Obama has never suggested that proper tire pressure would “break our dependence on Middle Eastern oil.” McCain’s insincere demagoguing of this issue overlooks a crucial and important fact – ensuring proper tire pressure is a better and more immediate response than oil drilling to the nation’s pain at the pump.

In a post on the Wonk Room, Charles Territo, the director of communications for the Auto Alliance (which represents Chrysler, Ford, and GM, among others), notes some facts McCain should keep in mind:

• The Department of Energy estimates that 1.2 billion gallons of fuel were wasted in 2005 as a result of driving on under-inflated tires.

• Fuel efficiency is reduced by 1% for every 3 PSI that tires are under-inflated.

• Proper tire inflation can save the equivalent of about 1 tank of gas per year.

• Proper tire inflation also reduces CO2 emissions.

• Experts estimate that 25% of automobiles are running on tires with lower than recommended pressure, because people don’t know how to check their tires or don’t realize that tires naturally lose air over time.


Territo notes that the Auto Alliance sponsored tire pressure checks for members of Congress and their staff last week. “Surprisingly, we found that most drivers had tires between 5 and 7 pounds under inflated — some had tires under-inflated by as much as 20 pounds,” he writes. “This significantly reduced their vehicle’s fuel economy.” If conservatives truly want to take immediate action on energy, they can stop wasting time on political stunts and start checking their tires.


Update 1: At his South Dakota rally, McCain yelled: “When I’m president of the United States, I’m not going to let them [Congress] go on vacation!” Brad Johnson documents McCain’s record of absenteeism on some important votes.

Update 2: Sen. Barack Obama responds: "Now two points, one, they know they're lying about what my energy plan is, but the other thing is they're making fun of a step that every expert says would absolutely reduce our oil consumption by 3 to 4 percent. It’s like these guys take pride in being ignorant."

Wall Street Journal Backtracking From Sketchy 'Beanpole' Obama Story

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Wall Street Journal Beanpole Article

Remember that story in the Wall Street Journal last week about how maybe elite Barack Obama was too skinny for lardy everyday Americans? Sure you do, it was a total water cooler piece and we all ate it up like the obese news gluttons that we are. It had great details, like how the Democratic presidential candidate drinks Black Forest Berry Honest Tea, and great quotes, like that one Clinton supporter who said "I won't vote for any beanpole guy," LOL. Well, it turns out that "beanpole quote" came from a sort-of jokey anonymous reply to a message board topic the Journal reporter herself created, and was the only remotely quotable line in that thread. And the Berry Honest Tea detail originated in a memo put out by Obama rival John McCain's campaign manager. Whoops! Today's it correction time:

A Weekend Journal article Friday about Barack Obama's weight included a quote from a Yahoo bulletin board that was posted in response to a question from a Wall Street Journal reporter who initiated the discussion. The article should have disclosed that the reporter used the bulletin board to elicit the comment, "I won't vote for any beanpole guy."

Ha ha, the article should probably also disclosed that the quote came from an account ("onlinebeerbellygirl") only used once — to post that message — and read in full as follows:
Yes I think He is to skinny to be President.Hillary has a potbelly and chuckybutt I'd of Voted for Her.I won't vote for any beanpole guy.

Fan of Hillary's "chuckybutt" suddenly won over to McCain by his jowls? Sounds like a serious, reputable source!

Also probably worth putting in a correction? Why the reporter, Amy Chozik, appears to have deleted the original discussion thread.

Fearless, honest journalism in the service of an important story — you just knew Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal would turn out this way, didn't you?