Yes We Did

Updated 2:55 PM -

AP: Obama Has Clinched The Nomination

The Associated Press weighs in with another big one (and with a bit of luck on the news orgs' part, this one will turn out to be accurate)...
Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.

Of course, the AP's track record today leaves something to be desired. But put that aside for a sec.

The key to understanding how the AP reached its conclusion is this from later in the piece...

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.

The AP is including over a dozen super-dels who privately indicated to the news org that they will ultimately back Obama, should the contest continue, but haven't said so publicly. Not everyone counts private commitments; the Obama campaign, for instance, only includes publicly declared supporters in its super-delegate tally.

So this isn't an official clinching of the nomination, obviously. And indeed, it's really a no-brainer that Obama has reached the magic number when you factor in private commitments. It's highly likely that far more than a dozen have privately signaled support for Obama.

UPDATED 11:55 AM - Before I even finished writing this post, the AP and CNN have both changed their stories due to Clinton top aides denying this.

FINALLY!!!!!! The day has arrived where facts finally overrule spin!

Clinton set to concede delegate race to Obama

By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer 5 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, campaign officials said, effectively ending her bid to be the nation's first female president.